The theme of the fall of the ruble has recently been raised quite often in the press. Publications are various: from chaotic philistine ("What to do with rubles?"), To sufficiently thorough, analytical. This article aims to provide some systematic generalized material on this subject, based on the publications available in the Russian press.
What determines the ruble strategy of Russia
Analytics is sometimes a paradoxical thing. In preparing the answer to this purely Russian question, we were faced with a decent coverage from the mouth of … Western analyst Chris Weafer. According to him, the deficit of structural changes for the Russian economy has matured and took shape to such an extent that 2014 should be decisive for their implementation: either they will happen at that time, or they will not happen at all (for thought: in 2016 - parliamentary elections, in 2018 - the election of the president).
At the same time, as the scientist says, it should be taken into account that reforms will give results only after 2-3 years.
The emphasis should be shifted from the outdated locomotive of economic growth - the extensive commodity economy - to a fundamentally new engine of economic growth. One of the tools for such a reorientation is the ruble exchange rate. What to do with it? This question has two alternative answers.
1. The position of the supporters of neoliberalism (in the person of the Central Bank, ministries, oligarchy) comes down to long-term reforms and, accordingly, the launch of the ruble in “free float”.
2. The conservatives, represented by the security forces, the bureaucracy, and state concerns, tend to impede change in every way.
The key message to start the reforms was the realization by both of them that sitting idly by is already more risky than reconstruction. To create a Russian investment resource, two conditions are necessary: expensive oil and a cheap ruble. So, the command was given: “Forward!”
Launch pad of the Russian economy
Of course, at first, the country's macroeconomic situation was assessed. The development of the economy was promoted by a ten-year stability of the ruble exchange rate. The Russian stock market is attractive for private investors. Impressive international reserves are accumulated - $ 500 billion.
In the future, the Russian ruble will have an integrative function - a single currency for all countries of the Customs Union.
The ruble policy of the Central Bank
The primary message of our reasoning should be the policy of the Central Bank - the state body that organizes money circulation and affects the rates of national and other currencies. The head of the main bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, has repeatedly voiced her main points.
They see the official vision of the mission of the national currency of Russia as floating, not administratively tied to the dollar and euro. To the questions: "What to do with rubles?" The head of the Central Bank replies that it should, using inexpensive currency, strengthen the economy, and that, in turn, will strengthen the ruble.
New exchange rate policy of the Central Bank
A fundamentally new look at the mission of the national currency was proposed by the "Main directions of monetary policy from 2014 to 2016." This document substantiates and regulates the policy of the Bank of Russia: from targeting the ruble to inflation targeting. It is planned by 2015 to completely switch to a floating mechanism for regulating the national currency. Fulfilling the above program, in January 1914 the Central Bank of the Russian Federation stopped currency interventions to maintain the exchange rate, respectively, the ruble is falling. What if economic indicators in the Eurozone countries at the same time show a positive trend? Russia should adhere to its strategy.
Official view: the reasons for the depreciation of the ruble
The head of the Bank of Russia urges to evaluate the problem of the falling ruble objectively: not the ruble fell, but the dollar and the euro strengthened. As you know, the beginning of this process was laid down by the purchase of assets of the Federal Reserve System of the United States according to the concept of "quantitative easing" - up to 65 billion dollars a month.
Since the end of 2012, the redistribution of world development centers has finally taken shape. The main drivers of economic growth were the United States and Europe. The economy of Russia, as well as Asian countries, in 2013 showed stagnation trends. The slowdown in the development of the PRC also falls into the same context.
Elvira Nabiullina sees the key factor for the growth of the national currency in stimulating the development of the economy. She points to a significant economic lever to rectify the situation: the predominance of Russian exports over its imports. At the same time, the state does not decide what to do with the rubles, manually assessing the situation objectively in manual mode.
In the short term, this trend determines the growing profitability of raw material exporters. Well, in the future, the ruble should “rely” on the business activity of other non-resource sectors of the Russian economy.
According to Russian bankers (Anton Mukhin, financial adviser of the BCS Irkutsk branch, Premier in Irkutsk), the current pressure on the ruble is speculative. Its growth in the future should contribute to a positive outlook for oil exports and the "reserves for maneuvers" of the Central Bank. The banker is sure that the state financial strategy stipulates as a certain stage that the ruble has fallen. What to do - we will see the next steps of the Central Bank.
A temporary depreciation is confirmed by studies conducted by analysts at America_Merrill_Lynch, who determined by macroeconomic modeling that the price of Russian oil will rise in the second and fourth quarters of this year.
Ruble exchange rate and Russian market players
At the same time, the head of the Central Bank urges all players on the Russian market to jointly and comprehensively tackle the problem of the fall of the ruble. She recalled that the Central Bank is not the only entity in the country's foreign exchange market. Its function is to competently evaluate and cope with short-term fluctuations of the national currency, thereby maintaining a stable situation for business.
The long-term trend of its depreciation, as Elvira Nabiullina points out, is associated with the structural influence of the export-oriented raw materials economy. That is, the answer to the challenge of time: "What to do with rubles?" It is associated with a fundamental structural reset of the entire economy as a whole.
About a business and household strategy with a falling ruble
It is obvious that a weak ruble is an effective lever for an export-oriented country, its goal is to support its producer. So says Yevgeny Bolotin, Chairman of the Board of the Banking Union of the Urals. He believes that the decision of the exchange rate alternative (to regulate / not to regulate) is obvious: the growth of industry and the payment of taxes are necessary, accompanying a controlled ruble decline. What if import rises in price? Replace it with Russian products.
Now about the position of entrepreneurs in the securities market. On the one hand, according to Radik Akhmetshin, director of the branch of the Ural stock market association, business has a chance to lay the foundation for its future growth by buying up shares at fallen prices. Indeed, in the future their course will certainly grow. The latter is also approved by the Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov. However, the leading Russian economists expect a permanent devaluation of the national currency during 2014 to 20%.
On the other hand, the pressure of the falling ruble on the Russian stock market, in fact, is just words. In reality, since its main players are non-residents, foreign investors were forced to "take over" the problem of falling stock prices.
The ruble is falling - what to do? 2014 year, realities
How does the Russian population react to the fall of the ruble? This question was studied by Vladimir Zotov (Directorate of Fin / Institutes and Investments of the Ural Bank). According to the banker, the demand for cash has definitely increased, while a small part of deposits is being taken. Against this background, there is no tendency to transfer ruble deposits into dollar or euro deposits. As an illustration of the foregoing, he announced the following statistics: if the ruble deposits of the Russian population are approximately 16.3 trillion. rubles, then currency, converted at the Central Bank rate in rubles, - only 3.3 trillion. rub., or 20%.
However, the Russians, who have experienced and experienced more than one crisis, nevertheless ask the question: “The ruble is falling - what should I do?” The answer is traditional: you should diversify your funds. For example, the following strategy is quite reasonable: put half of the money into a ruble deposit, one of the remaining quarters into a dollar deposit, and the rest into a euro deposit.
The position of the average citizen
You must admit that today the "problems" of compatriots regularly moving abroad in order to make the same import purchases that they could make in Russia, but at better prices, seem ridiculous. You see, their purchasing power has fallen when converting rubles.
Many citizens of our state, unlike the first, are deprived of a financial airbag. Another problem is relevant for them - what to do with the ruble today? In principle, funds in the amount of up to 30 thousand rubles. can be stored in cash at home.
Now we will consider a situation when citizens still have free cash. They should not take ruble deposits from the bank. According to the terms of the deposit agreement, terminating it ahead of schedule, the bank client will not receive interest. By doing this, he will only increase his own damage with his own hands.
If you have long dreamed of buying an imported car, the question: “What to do with the ruble today?” Is especially relevant for you. The answer is brief: "Buy!" Indeed, after all, in the future, the fall of the national currency will increase the cost of your dreams.
Recommended - not recommended
If we summarize the qualified advice to fellow citizens who are considering how to create a safety margin for themselves when the national currency falls, then everything will come down to two extremely simple positions.
First: does not recommend investing in low liquid assets. For example, real estate income is only possible over long periods of time. Moreover, with inflation, in principle, it is generally not recommended to sell real estate. In a crisis, the dynamics of need for money is little predicted.
And yet, what to do with the devaluation of the ruble? The second position indicates that the recommended direction of investing funds of the population is liquid assets: bank deposits, precious metals, mutual funds from investment companies.
And how can you do without the good old centuries-old advice that has already become traditional: citizens, learn to save, put aside a tenth of the money earned every month for a rainy day!
Some circumstances of the fall of the ruble
Anecdotally look "disaster on camera" of the Russian oil industry workers, the most egregious of all the cries: "The guard! The collapse of the ruble! What to do?!!" Indeed, people who have studied the economy in the slightest degree are aware that with a rising oil price and a falling dollar, the “raw materials” fall into nirvana, because their incomes are calculated in hard currency and expenses (including taxes) in rubles. The reverse transformation takes place: the fall of the ruble becomes the income of the oligarchs.
Among the losers, Surgutneftegas will surely be - a deeply commercial structure with an impressive actual currency position of $ 30 billion. We note that the same Lukoil and Rosneft will win, but less. They will not be able to maximize profits due to the existing short-term foreign currency accounts payable (they will have to buy foreign currency to repay them at the inflation rate). The leading exporter, Gazprom, is likely to receive excess profits from the “political” increase in tariffs.
Director of the Alpari analytical agency Alexander Razuvaev predicts that as a result of the prevailing tariff plug between the price of oil (gas) and taxes in rubles, the main income of the oil and gas complex will amount to 862 billion rubles. with additional income of 682 billion rubles. In a word, when the ruble depreciates what to do, oilmen know best.
