The main macroeconomic indicators include summary indicators on the volumes of consumption, production, income and expenses, import and export, economic growth and welfare of the country's population, as well as some others.
Key macroeconomic indicators
These include:
- gross national product (GNP) - the market total value of the final product created using factors of production owned by the citizens of a given state, regardless of their location;
- GDP - an indicator with a similar name, instead of the word "national" containing the word "domestic" - it means the same produced in the state for a certain period of time by all manufacturers.
They are the main macroeconomic indicators.
- net NP (NNP) represents GNP for a certain time period minus depreciation deductions;
- national income (NI) reflects the total income of all residents of the state for a specific period of time;
- personal income (LD) reflects the total income received by the country's population after deducting social insurance payments, corporate income taxes and retained earnings from the ND, taking into account transfer payments;
- personal disposable income (LRD) reflects one of them that can be used by the population to spend on households;
- national wealth (NL) - total goods created for a certain period as a result of labor activity and held by the company on a certain date.
System of National Accounts
The main macroeconomic indicators are listed in it in the form of a specific system and special tables.
National accounts mean the set of indicators considered that characterize the production, use and distribution of GNP and ND.
Using the SNA determine the main macroeconomic indicators at a particular point in time.
The most widely used in national and international practice of the above indicators are GNP and GDP. Let's consider them in more detail.
GDP
One of the main macroeconomic indicators is GDP. It can be calculated by income, expenses and value added (DS). These three methods in the literature can be found under the names:
- on end use;
- on distribution;
- on production methods.
When calculating according to the first method, GDP is calculated as the sum of net exports, gross investment, government and total spending.
When calculating the second method, a summation of all possible factor incomes is added with the addition of net indirect taxes that apply to business and depreciation.
When calculating by the third method, the next (added) value created at subsequent production stages is added to each previous cost. DS in its final expression is equal to the total cost of the created product.
GDP, as the main macroeconomic indicator of national accounts, in turn, is divided into real and nominal.
If it is calculated at prices that were valid for the billing period, it refers to the second named variety. If the calculation is carried out at constant prices, then we are talking about real GDP.
Thus, the price level has no effect on it, which suggests that on the basis of the analysis of this basic macroeconomic indicator of the country, one can judge the physical volume of production.
At the same time, nominal GDP can undergo dynamics both due to physical volume and due to price levels. The latter is often understood as GNP.
GDP in production
In this case, this basic macroeconomic indicator of the economy means the value of products created for a specific time period in the territory of a particular country.
Economic sectors are divided as follows:
- services and agricultural production;
- primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, in which natural resources are used respectively, processed products of other industries and serving the person with his production activities.
In this case, the GDP includes only products that are produced for the period under review.
GDP in distribution
Here, this basic macroeconomic indicator is calculated as the sum of income and material costs of economic entities for a specific time period.
In this area, 3 components of GDP are distinguished:
- owner income of production factors;
- indirect taxes;
- depreciation of deductions.
When the VD exceeds the depreciation, the economy shows a net increase in the volume of capital, which indicates production growth, ceteris paribus.
With equal data, indicators indicate stagnation in production, since the stock of means of production is unchanged in the economy.
All other things being equal, the decline in production is indicated by the excess of depreciation over HP.
GDP in consumption
In this area, this indicator reflects the total costs incurred in connection with the production of products for a specific time interval. As noted earlier, the components of GDP in consumption include:
- government procurement of products;
- gross investment (representing net investment and depreciation charges, which are used to increase real capital);
- personal consumption - expenses for current and durable items, as well as those for various services;
- net export - its value excluding the value of imports.
The concept of gross national product
As the main macroeconomic indicator, GNP characterizes the level of economic development of a particular state.
Between GDP and GNP, the differences usually do not exceed 1-2%. As is clear from the previous material, the methods of their calculation are reduced to the territorial principle to the first of the main macroeconomic indicators. In calculating GNP, the national approach is used, that is, only the results of foreign economic activity are taken into account. That is, GNP is the sum of GDP and net exports.
The main macroeconomic indicators and their calculation are the same for a closed economy.
As for GDP, GNP distinguishes between nominal and real indicators. For these two main macroeconomic variables, the GDP / GNP deflator is determined equal to the ratio of their nominal volume to real.
The relationship of the considered indicators of macroeconomic development
GDP and GNP constitute the basis, guided by which other macroeconomic indicators are determined.
These include net national product (NNP), which means the difference between GDP and total depreciation.
If indirect taxes are subtracted from the NNP, then ND will be obtained.
The system of key macroeconomic indicators
It is used to quantify the processes taking place in macroeconomics. These indicators are aggregated and are determined based on the calculation of more detailed indicators.
This system includes two groups of indicators, which will be discussed below.
Volume and cost indicators
They show the dynamics in the volume of production in a particular state and the structure of its distribution depending on the channels of its use.
To calculate these indicators use 3 price groups:
- current, in which those of them in which trading operations were carried out are used for calculations;
- comparable, taken at a certain fixed level;
- conditional, given in srvc. units, correlated with prices for similar products in world markets.
Volume-cost indicators in the temporal aspect are compared using the second or third prices, and in space - only by their third variety.
The main data indicators include:
- NB.
- SOP - the total social product - the total value of manufactured products in a particular country in a certain time period. Ceteris paribus, SOP is greater in that state in which longer technological chains predominate, since it is characterized by a double set-off of cost, when each part that is part of the product is first accounted for separately, and then as an integral part of this product. In this regard, this indicator does not belong to the main macroeconomic ones.
- GNP.
- Pure (final) product (NNP).
- Nd. It is divided into production, which is obtained as a result of economic activity within the state, as well as distributed, which, in addition, includes gains or losses from foreign economic operations.
Distributed ND are classified into:
- consumption fund, which includes personal and public consumption;
- accumulation fund, which includes fixed and current assets;
- reimbursement fund, which includes reimbursement costs and insurance payments.
The scope of monetary circulation in these indicators is characterized by such monetary aggregates as M0-M3.
Dynamics and price level indicators
A typical indicator in relation to the cost of living is the consumer price index, which is determined on the basis of knowledge about the consumer basket.
The dynamics of the price level is characterized by retail and wholesale price indices. They represent the ratio of the total cost of goods sold through a network in current prices to those in base prices.
A weighted price index is also calculated, which is determined by the ratio of the total costs of retail and wholesale in current prices to base ones.
The situation in our country
In relation to the Russian Federation, the main macroeconomic indicators are the same as those considered earlier. In 2016, there was a downward trend in retail trade turnover. Consumer activity began to decline, due to the fact that the population began to prefer to keep money in banks and other ways of accumulating expenses.
The dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in Russia in 2016 compared to 2015 shows that GDP for the analyzed year fell slightly (by 0.6%), and commodity turnover and real incomes also decreased (by more than 5%).
Comparing the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in the world and our state, it can be noted that the Russian Federation is in the middle range: its GDP is higher than the world average, but lower than that of European countries. Production begins to focus on the production of technological and competitive products.
Today, the economic sector is largely dependent on the sale of hydrocarbons, since the revenue side of the budget is largely formed by the sale of gas and oil.
Prediction of the considered indicators
It is carried out at the state level for the following purposes:
- compilation of independent calculations;
- use in budget planning.
The forecast of the main macroeconomic indicators is carried out for a certain period of time in the future. It should be constantly adjusted taking into account current information.
When making forecasts, it is necessary to compare the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators in Russia and the world. On a national scale, it is necessary to forecast the dynamics and volume of GDP, the price dynamics index, sales volumes of goods, investments, labor costs, profits, indicators of import and export. These forecasts are subsequently taken into account by various ministries and departments.
Macroeconomics in the Budget Code
According to Article 183 of the RF Budget Code, the main macroeconomic indicators of the budget used to compile it are the GDP for the next fiscal year and its growth rate this year, and the inflation rate (December of the next fiscal year in relation to the current one).
