For two years now, our country has been under international sanctions. This event coincided with such phenomena as the crisis in the oil industry, the slowdown in global economic growth. The level of economic development of Russia depends on all these factors. What awaits us in the future?
What are the forecasts given by the Ministry of Economic Development, headed for a long time by the now famous “corruption official” Ulyukaev? We will analyze in more detail below.
Economic development factors
The level of economic development of Russia includes the following indicators:
- Gross domestic product and gross national product per capita.
- Economic competitiveness.
- Level of corruption.
- Ranked in world rankings.
- The structure of the economy.
- The share of investment in education, science, innovation.
GDP has traditionally been decisive. We will talk about him further.
GDP per capita: table
The following table will make it clear how our economy is “independent” of oil prices and global sanctions.
|
Country |
GDP per capita in 2014, dollars |
GDP per capita in 2016, dollars |
|
Russia |
$ 24, 298 (45th place) |
7 742, 58 (73 place) |
|
Saudi Arabia |
51 779 (10th place) |
19, 312 (40th place) |
|
USA |
53 001 (9th place) |
57 220 (6th place) |
If we analyze the per capita GDP of all countries, we will see that it was the oil exporters that suffered the most, while the buyers, on the contrary, increased the volume. This indicates a crisis in the oil industry. However, for our country, the situation was aggravated by international sanctions and counter-sanctions. Our GDP dipped more than three times. This is a record among all countries in two years.
Problems of the Russian economy
As can be seen from the indicators, we need to get rid of the excessive dependence of hydrocarbon exports. The government and the president have been focusing on this for more than a year. However, the share of the budget from exports is more than half in percentage terms. Naturally, lower energy prices have a big impact on our housekeeper.
The second problem is sanctions. No need to mistakenly attribute counter sanctions here. The ban on Polish apples and salmon from Norway is a political prerogative of our authorities as a response. Europe was not going to refuse food supplies. Sanctions affected the banking sector, the ban on investment - blocking the accounts of Russian officials and businessmen. This is not advertised, but it directly affected our budget. This is due to the fact that the State Duma approved the so-called "Rottenberg Law". Its essence is that when blocking private accounts in Europe, Russia will compensate for this at the expense of all taxpayers. For better or worse, we will not argue.
The third problem is the lack of investment. This is due to the slowdown in economic growth not only in our country, but also in the world. During periods of crisis, investors try to keep funds in guaranteed portfolios. There is almost no profit, but the risk of losing everything is also minimal. The boom of investors came from 2000 to 2008. The percentage of profit reached more than 50%. Even ordinary bank deposits were above 12%. The situation has changed today. The same 12% return on high-risk investments is a good percentage.
The fourth problem is corruption. We hope that the recent events with the dismissal of ministers and governors for corruption are the beginning of the fight against it. Time will tell.
The fifth problem is bureaucratic barriers. Even the large Swedish company IKEA has announced that it is refusing to expand in Russia. This is due to the fact that officials and bureaucrats at all levels extort bribes upon agreement. The last message from the president to the Federal Assembly, we hope, will change this situation.
The inflation rate and the “predictions” of the Ministry of Economic Development
The level of economic development in Russia depends on inflation. Previous years, it amounted to more than 11%. However, the authorities decided to keep inflation at all costs. The Ministry of Economic Development predicts it for 2017 no higher than 4.9%, and GDP growth - about 0.6%. However, the forecasts of this department have never come true. And today, it changed forecasts for the future three times a month. It was originally said that GDP growth will be at the level of 0.8-1% in 2017.
The Accounts Chamber justifies the department, claiming that it reaches untimely and incorrect information from the relevant ministries and departments. Hence, such an error in the "predictions", which reached 2%.
Trump will save us?
It is not known how the election of President Trump in the United States will affect our economy. What to expect from him? Of course, there were many optimists who started talking about a future reset of relations and lifting sanctions, which would positively affect our economy. However, we heard the same thing with the advent of B. Obama in due time. Some analysts seriously believe that Trump will be a “murderous” person for us. This conclusion suggests itself on the basis of the analysis of election rhetoric. Trump is going to re-open hydrocarbon production in his country, to develop industrial production. The oil market is oversaturated today. Expensive hydrocarbons are disadvantageous to an industrial state that buys resources from others. Switching to your oil will drop the price of black gold even more. Now we come to the numbers that show the level of economic development of Russia.
The share of energy resources makes up more than 50% of budget revenues. The minimum price until 2014 for the balanced budget of our country should be $ 80 per barrel. Today it is less than 50. The conclusions suggest themselves: the budget has received less than half of what was planned.
The problems of the Russian economy appeared against the background of falling oil prices. And the main one is the lack of diversification. While oil prices were above $ 100 per barrel, the standard of living of the population in Russia was high. As soon as they fell to 50, we were faced with enormous problems: staff reductions, cost optimization, etc. Now the Ministry of Economic Development, along with other officials, is constantly thinking about how to balance the budget. There were projects to increase personal income tax from 13 to 15%, the introduction of a "parasitism tax", raising the retirement age, freezing indexations of pensions, maternity capital, etc.
State Budget Adjustment
Today, the forecast of the basic (normal) budget is formed at the level of oil prices - $ 40 per barrel. Conservative (critical) - at the level of 25. But what happens if the price falls below? This is unknown to anyone.
