Statistics help researchers evaluate the processes that occur in the system. Various factors can be grouped, compared with other similar categories. The population and processes taking place in the social sphere are studied by statistics quite carefully. After all, this reflects at the global level the existing demographic situation.
The average annual population is involved in many economic studies at the macro level. Therefore, this important category of data is constantly monitored and recalculated. The importance of the indicator, as well as the methods of analysis are discussed in the article.
Population
To be able to determine the average annual population of a city, district or country, it is necessary to understand the essence of the subject of the study. The demographic situation can be viewed from different angles.
The population refers to the entire number of people who live within the boundaries of a certain territory. To analyze the demographic situation, this indicator is considered in the context of natural reproduction (fertility and mortality) and migration. They also examine the structure of the population (by age, gender, economic and social level, etc.). Also, demographic data show how the distribution of people across the territory has changed.
The population is studied by statistics using general and special methods. This allows you to make full, deep conclusions about the development of demographic indicators.
Areas of analysis
The average annual population is estimated using different signs of grouping depending on the objectives of the analysis. The demographic picture that has developed over a certain period of time in a particular territory can be viewed in terms of the dynamics of the total population.
To understand why these or other changes occurred, it is necessary to evaluate the natural movement, the migration of people. For this, relevant data are involved in the analysis. In order to have a complete picture of population grouping, the formation of the total number of people, they are classified according to certain criteria.
For example, a study shows how many women and men live in a certain territory, how old they are, how many people from the working population have qualifications, and the highest level of education.
Calculation formula
To make a population recount, various formulas are applied. But sometimes the calculation is complicated by the data collection for several time intervals. If there is information at the beginning and end of the period, the average annual population (formula) has the following form:
ChNovred. = (ChNn.p. + ChNk.p.) / 2, where ChNred. - average population, NN.p. - the number of population at the beginning of the period, Ch.k.p. - the number at the end of the period.
If statistics were collected for each month of the study period, the formula will be as follows:
ChNovred. = (0, 5ЧН1 + ЧН2 … ЧНп-1 + 0, 5ЧНп) (п-1), where ЧН1, ЧН2 … ЧНп-1 is the number of people at the beginning of the month, n is the number of months.
Data for analysis
The average annual population, the formula of which was presented above, takes a series of data for calculation. It is necessary to calculate the constant number of people living in this territory (PN). It includes the number of people who actually live in the study area (NN).
In addition to this indicator, to study the demographic state of the country, the category of the population temporarily residing here (EP) is taken into account. Also temporarily absent people (IN) take part in the count. Only this indicator is subtracted from the total. The formula of the resident population is as follows:
PN = NN + VP - VO.
In order to distinguish between VP and LV, the time interval of 6 months is taken into account. If a group of people has lived in the study area for more than six months, they are classified as cash, and less than six months as a temporary population.
Population census
The average annual resident population is calculated based on census data. But this process requires a significant investment of time, effort and money. Therefore, it is not possible to conduct a census every month or even a year.
Therefore, in the intervals between recounting the number of people in a certain territory, a system of logical calculations is used. They collect statistics on birth and mortality, migration movement. But over time, a certain error in the indicators accumulates.
Therefore, in order to correctly determine the average annual population, a periodic census is still required.
Application of analysis data
The calculation of the average annual population is carried out with the aim of further study of demographic processes. The result of the analysis is used in calculating the mortality and birth rates, natural reproduction. They are calculated in the context of each age group.
Also, the average number is applicable in assessing the number of able-bodied and economically active population. At the same time, they can consider the totality of people who have left or arrived in the country or region through migration. This makes it possible to assess the potential of the entire workforce concentrated here.
The correct distribution of labor resources is the key to economic development of the state. Therefore, the importance of counting the number of people is difficult to overestimate.
Natural population movement
The average annual population, the calculation formula of which was considered above, is involved in assessing various demographic indicators. One of them is the natural movement of the population. It is due to the natural processes of fertility and mortality.
Over the year, the average population increases by the number of newborns and decreases by the number of dead people. This is the natural course of life. Relative to the average population, the coefficients of natural movement are found. If the birth rate exceeds the death rate, there is an increase (and vice versa).
Also, when conducting such an analysis, the population is broken down by age categories. This determines which group had the highest mortality. This allows us to conclude about the standard of living in the study area, social protection of citizens.
Migration
The indicator of the number of inhabitants can change not only due to natural processes. People leave to work or, conversely, come for the purpose of employment. If such immigrants are or are absent at the studied object for more than 6 months, this must be taken into account when analyzing.
Significant migration flows affect the economy. The labor market changes both with a decrease and an increase in the number of able-bodied residents.
The average annual population will help to find both a growth rate and a decrease in labor supply in the region. If too many immigrants arrive in the country, the unemployment rate will increase. A decrease in the number of able-bodied people leads to a budget deficit, lower pensions, salaries for doctors, teachers, etc. Therefore, the indicator presented is also extremely necessary to control the migration movement.
Economic activity
In addition to changes in the quantitative ratio of the entire population of a country or region, a structural analysis is necessarily carried out. Usually, three classes of the population are distinguished by income level.
The average annual number of economically active population allows us to assess the purchasing power of residents, their standard of living. In developed countries, most of the society is made up of middle-income people. They can acquire the necessary food products, things, periodically make major acquisitions, travel.
In such states there is a small percentage of very rich and poor people. If the number of low-income residents increases significantly, a large financial burden falls on the budget. At the same time, the overall standard of living is reduced.
All groups of the economically active population are presented as coefficients relative to the average annual population.
Probability tables
To determine the average annual population without a census, the method of constructing probability tables is used. The fact is that most demographic processes can be predicted in advance. This applies to the natural movement of the population.
The table is built on the basis of several statements. The natural movement is irreversible, because you cannot die and be born twice. Only once can you give birth to your first child. A certain sequence of events must be taken into account. For example, you cannot enter into a second marriage if you have not registered the first.
The population is divided into age groups. For each of them, the probability of the onset of an event is different. Next, the number of people in each category is analyzed.
Over time, people with a certain degree of probability move into one or another group. This is how the forecast is made. For example, that category of the working-age population will become pensioners. Therefore, analysts are able to predict how many people will join the next group.
