Any enterprise, business, campaign requires certain risks that may affect the final result of their implementation. The implementation of a business strategy implies a change in the rights, obligations and obligations of entrepreneurs, possible occurrences of unintended and previously unused processes, as well as other consequences.
In order to choose the right set of actions to achieve the result of an activity, it is necessary to take into account the possible influence of side effects so that the conceived event does not lose meaning. Any tactical (strategic) scheme should be subjected to risk analysis before use in order to minimize the latter.
Risk analysis of the enterprise (company) begins with their assessment. For this, it is necessary to choose an assessment methodology that must satisfy the security requirements of a certain type of activity and the legal regulators of this activity.
Risk analysis requires the use of available information to assess the likelihood of the occurrence of certain events and the possible magnitude of their consequences.
As a rule, risks are understood as negative events and circumstances, for example, losses during the venture, natural disasters with serious consequences, etc. However, risk analysis helps identify potential positive consequences. It is necessary to detect future problems and assess development prospects.
Risk analysis is carried out at a quantitative and qualitative level (risk analysis methods are selected individually).
In a quantitative analysis, the phenomena under study are assigned numerical (quantitative) values, empirical data are used. At this level, the analysis is extremely objective and accurate (for this method) in nature.
Qualitative analysis includes an internal (instinctive) assessment of the circumstances. At this level, subjectivity and related doubts are allowed.
Comparing these two levels of analysis, it is necessary to dwell in more detail on the quantitative one. It can be done in many ways.
The deterministic approach uses point estimates. In order to understand what the outcome may be in individual cases, different events are assigned certain values. For example, in the financial model, one can consider such options: the worst (future losses), best (future profit) and most probable (moderate, relative profit).
In this case, the method has a number of drawbacks: it does not take into account the many possible scenarios, but focuses on only a few basic versions (all of which are considered equivalent); insufficiently considered factors that can influence the development of the situation, which leads to a simplification of the model. However, many enterprises use this approach, despite the relatively low reliability of the results of such an analysis.
Stochastic risk analysis (Monte Carlo method) is more reliable. With this approach, the initial parameters are presented as ranges of values (produce a probability distribution). Moreover, different variables have different probabilities of consequences. The values are randomly selected based on possible probability distributions.
Samples are called iterations. Sample results are recorded. To carry out the simulation, the sampling procedure is repeated hundreds of times, therefore, such results are much more able to reveal the probability of the expected events. The data of such modeling can demonstrate not only future events, but also show the probability of their occurrence. The results can be represented graphically, as well as reflect their sensitivity, that is, show which of the variables has most affected the result. Using this method, it is also possible to show the relationships between the original variables.
It is most convenient to conduct a quantitative risk analysis on the basis of Excel spreadsheets, since the tools of this program allow you to add new functions in order to be able to distribute probabilities and get the most accurate results.
