The question of whether there will be a crisis in Russia, which has sounded very often lately, has exhausted itself. He is.
Systemic, with all the attributes and negative dynamics of indicators of economic development. The next logical question: "What to do in a crisis and how long will it last?" The opinions of experts on this issue are different. As well as an assessment of what is happening. Since everything is ambiguous: the geopolitical situation, the state of the economy, and the proposed ways out of a critical situation.
Therefore, an approach will be justified when authoritative opinions, and not only domestic experts, are taken into account. In informational diversity, one must be able to develop the ability to quickly filter and receive information that is based on facts, logic and common sense. We will try to understand the nature of the crisis and answer the old questions that arise in the new historical realities.
Origin of the term
Crisis (ancient Greek κρίσις - decision, turning point) is a state that characterizes the mismatch of the form and content of any social phenomenon, process and requires immediate resolution. Depending on the social nature, a crisis may be:
- economic;
- social;
- financial;
- demographic.
The crisis can be classified by scale, level, other parameters. In the article, the subject of analysis is the social nature of the phenomenon.
The crisis has historically developed in the judicial practice of the period of antiquity and meant the actual conduct of the court session.
In terms of content, it means the turning point of a process that requires new forms and methods for further development. The socio-economic crisis in Russia, which currently characterizes the state of society, is unlimited by the scale of one country. Moreover, the modern crisis, for example, goes far beyond a certain social institution. According to experts, it is comprehensive, affects the structure of power, the economy, the financial institution, and is associated with the geopolitical situation of the country. To assess what is happening, we will try to uncover the economic nature of the social phenomenon.
Economic crisis
One of the main terms when it comes to the economic characteristics of society is production. The history of economics was studied in a sequence of historical forms of production. In the modern approach, the sphere of production, consumption and distribution of a social product can be analyzed in different paradigms, that is, knowledge systems with given vectors. Therefore, it is advisable to talk about a specific model of economic production and its inherent economic indicators, markers of state.
To understand what the economic crisis in Russia consists of, the reasons that led to it, we need to evaluate the current model of the economy. But it is quite difficult to do. It is called the "departure" from the model of state regulation. Only the presence of a model in the past is ascertained. The present of Russia is most often referred to as “raw material production” and the direct dependence of the state of the economy on the cost of oil on the world market is indicated. If there is no specific model, we restrict ourselves to some indicators. Economic markers of modern Russia:
- GDP decline;
- reduction in production;
- avoiding the state regulatory model;
- dependence of the state of the economy on the price of raw materials (oil);
- mass export of capital abroad;
- significant influence of foreign capital on the banking sector.
In order to designate a model of the economy, directional vectors must be defined: the presence of a strategy, the basic values on which it is based, and the content component, including some ideology of the model. There are none at the moment. The Russian economy, designated in the 90s of the last century as a rejection of the previous development model, remained essentially transitional. Why it is gone, it is clear - from the state socialist regulatory system. Where is she going? It remains a mystery even to the initiates. Karl Marx called this condition "the loss of the old world without gaining a new one."
Social metamorphoses
The economy cannot be distinguished from other forms of society. The crisis in Russia is manifested in all social institutions of society. This is confirmed by the facts about a number of bankruptcies of enterprises from large businesses and a significant reduction in the segment of small and medium-sized businesses.
Due to innovations in the field of taxation in 2013, the number of individual entrepreneurs almost halved. Entrepreneurship itself has not disappeared, but the way of existence has changed. The share of the shadow economy increased, which also affected the state budget.
The revocation of licenses from banks and the financial crisis in Russia, which has manifested itself since August 2013, have become real indicators of the onset of a systemic crisis. In the social sphere, an increase in wage arrears and an increase in unemployment.
These factors have not yet become widespread. But social tension is manifested. That is why the adoption of the law on the bankruptcy of individuals. For seven and a half years he was under consideration. And now it is urgently introduced not from 2016, as previously assumed, but six months earlier, from the summer of 2015. Since the critical mass of the insolvent population has reached its limits, and this could result in another social crisis.
The consequences of the collapse of Ukraine is also one of the causes of social tension. Budget diversion, financing of resettlement and refugee support programs, investments in the Crimean economy - all this is a good resource perspective. However, the present requires the attraction of significant reserve funds.
Each crisis has its own historical face.
Each of the problem periods has the same dynamics and meaning, but different historical characteristics. The crisis in Russia in 1998 led to a technical default. Failure to fulfill obligations on federal loan bonds and state treasury bonds led to a loss of trust on the part of both external and internal lenders. The national currency for the first time radically lost its weight, more than three times in relation to the dollar. This was the most difficult period of economic decline. The consequences were quite severe. The high level of criminalization of society and the wild ways of forming the initial capital characterized this period.
The crisis in Russia 2008 manifested itself in the financial and economic sphere. This stage revealed the degree of dependence of the Russian financial system on foreign capital. Bankruptcy of large banks occurred. The real estate market collapsed, followed by stagnation of the construction market. The decline was due to a collapse in the mortgage system worldwide.
Manifesting as a banking crisis in Russia provoked instability and the ensuing recession in all social spheres. The outflow of deposits in financial institutions for one month alone led to a reduction in funds in the accounts of individuals by more than fifty billion rubles.
The crisis in Russia and the way out
Since, as it turned out earlier, the critical condition is the state in which you need to quickly make decisions and look for new forms that meet the demands of reality, it remains to understand what these quick decisions are?
A number of proposals and new approaches to the development strategy are contained in the traditional annual message to the Federal Assembly of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
In his speech, a characteristic of the economic condition of the country is given, the theses of a strategy for further development are presented. And in conditions when the crisis in Russia has fully manifested itself, the speech can be regarded as options for overcoming it. In particular, the following measures are proposed:
- expansion of economic space, participation in the Eurasian project;
- substitution of import of goods by export of products;
- production support;
- development of the Far Eastern region;
- within three years, reaching production development indicators that exceed the average economic indicators of the world market;
- creation of industrial production;
- amnesty of capital offshore zones;
- financial support for non-oil production.
The President’s speech and the subsequent press conference, which touched upon in more detail the moments that aroused public interest, showed the readiness of the Russian government for a cardinal concentration of resources and a breakthrough in the country's economy. A breakthrough to a new level of organization of society and the search for resources within the country, and not beyond its borders.
Crimea, crisis, Khodorkovsky
The modern era can be described as a search for its model of development of society as a whole. The latest crisis in Russia requires special regulatory measures. This is due to the political balance of power at the present stage. The difficult situation is aggravated by economic sanctions from the United States and Europe, which are uninteresting in the economic sense for either side of the economic confrontation.
The main reason is the global crisis. Russia is betting on the development of Crimea and the inclusion of this independent state in economic interactions with Russia. The strengthening of the Russian Federation does not meet the interests of a number of states, which is why the application of sanctions makes it easy to read an attempt to weaken Russia's influence in the global economic space. The famous oligarch Khodorkovsky notes the farsightedness of the authors of the "alienation" of the Russian community. Russia is ready for negotiations and resolving the contradictions that provoke a political crisis. Russia is ready for a constructive dialogue. Will the West respond to this?
The euro is creeping, the ruble is falling, Russia will break through
The freedom of movement of currency indicators, the bacchanalia of exchange rates observed by the whole world, shows the real situation.
Specialists in economics, politics, strategy - everyone is trying to assess the situation. Moreover, the forms are different, from political PR to the forecast of astrologers. The recognition of the fact that one of the leaders “guessed” the course in the last months of the year does not make it easier for anyone. As this does not confirm the economic competence of the predictors.
It is clear that the actions of the head of the White House show an attempt not only to weaken Russia economically, but also to lead to a state of panic and imbalance in society. The social crisis in Russia, which is expected from an artificial complication of an already difficult situation in the country, may subsequently have the opposite result. The economic collapse of Russia, which the “customers” are waiting for, will not take place, if only for the reason that the state’s potential is far from exhausted. The Russian resource lurks in the ability to find a solution not outside, but inside its own country and make another breakthrough, which is comparable with the scale of the Russian space.
Country of paradoxes
Russia is an unpredictable country. Its most resourceful state is manifested in resistance to the crisis. The tougher the situation, the stronger the way out of it.
And this is confirmed by the words and position of the President of Russia Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin during a press conference following the appeal to the Federal Assembly. He predicts the possibility of overcoming the crisis in Russia in two years, and this is in the worst case scenario.
An attempt to reverse the situation provoked by external and internal factors in favor of our country is worthy of respect. Speech by President Putin at a press conference on December 18, 2014 showed that Russia is not concentrating on finding ways out of the crisis. This is a narrow understanding of the situation. The country is changing its strategy in such a way as to make a qualitative breakthrough and, at the expense of its own capabilities, reach economic indicators that are higher than the world average.
Resource potential of Russia
The next crisis in Russia created a situation of economic isolation from old Europe.
Under these conditions, I had to look for ways out of the critical situation without expecting external support. In order not to burden yourself with the question of whether there will be a crisis in Russia again, it is necessary here and now to create the prerequisites for a healthy economy. And for this, the country has all the possibilities:
- the agro-industrial complex showed growth this year, amounting to 5 percent, a record stock of grain crops was collected;
- Russia has increased its resource thanks to the Crimea;
- EU sanctions dictated harsh conditions for the development of their own industrial production, and this is the shortest and most reliable way to stabilize the economy;
- reorientation to the “eastern” version of development under the conditions of sanctions has given intensive development to the Euro-Asian industrial complex.
