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Simulation models. Stages of development of simulation models

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Simulation models. Stages of development of simulation models
Simulation models. Stages of development of simulation models

Video: Introduction to Simulation: System Modeling and Simulation 2024, June

Video: Introduction to Simulation: System Modeling and Simulation 2024, June
Anonim

Simulation technologies are based on the construction of various examples of real systems that meet the professional context of a particular situation. Simulation models are compiled that meet the requirements of this moment, with which the trained subject is immersed. The imitation and imitation-game modeling existing in the techniques is accompanied by the reproduction of sufficiently adequate processes occurring in reality. Thus, training makes it possible to form a real professional experience, despite quasi-professional activity.

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Roles

In the learning process, game procedures are proposed that offer built simulation models, which means that the distribution of roles is also provided for: students communicate with each other and with the teacher, imitating professional activities. Therefore, simulation technology is divided into two parts - gaming and non-gaming, and analysis of the proposed situation helps determine the type. To do this, it is necessary to clarify the system of external conditions that prompt to begin active actions. That is, all the problems, phenomena, interrelated facts that characterize the situation, simulation models must accommodate.

A specific event or a specific period of the organization's activity requires the head of adequate orders, decisions and actions. The analysis technique for studying specific situations is a detailed and in-depth study of a real situation or created artificially, revealing characteristic properties. This contributes to the development of students' analytical thinking in the search for a systematic approach to solving the problem, identifying options for erroneous decisions, and analyzing criteria for optimal solutions. This is how professional business contacts are established, decisions are made collectively, and conflicts are eliminated.

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Situations

There are four types of situations: first, the situation of the problem is considered, where the students have to find the causes of the problem, pose and solve the problem, then the situation is subject to assessment by the decisions made. After this, a situation is constructed illustrating all the topics of this course with examples, and the problems that have just been solved are taken as the basis, and the topic is a situation-exercise, where simulation models solve simple tasks using the analogy method - these are the so-called learning situations.

Specific types of situations are different: these are both classic and live, situation-incident, situation with the analysis of business correspondence, as well as actions according to the instructions. The choice is determined by many factors: the purpose of the study, the level of preparation, the availability of technical tools and illustration material - it all depends on the individual style of the teacher, whose work is not limited to strict regulation, neither by choice of varieties, nor by methods of analysis. Here are the first steps in developing simulation models.

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Practical exercises

In practice, the ideas of a contextual approach are best embodied, because they consist of concrete and real life situations: a case, a story that contains a simulation model, an example of a description of events that have taken place or are quite possible, which ended in errors in solving production problems. The task is to identify and analyze these errors when applying the ideas and concepts of this course.

Such a plan of vocational training is quite realistic and effective in comparison with the formulation of individual issues, which are considered purely theoretically. The orientation of situational training is such that skills and knowledge are taught not as a subject, but as a means to solve all kinds of problems that arise in the activities of a specialist. Training situations are based on real professional production fragments, taking into account all interpersonal relationships, which is extremely important for the successful operation of the enterprise. Trainees receive the outline and context of future professional activities.

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Choice of situations

This is one of the most difficult teaching tasks. An exemplary training situation usually meets the following requirements:

  1. The script is based on realities or taken from life. This does not mean that it is necessary to submit a production fragment with numerous details and technological subtleties that will distract the student from solving the main problem. Production jargon in this case is also inappropriate.

  2. The educational situation should not contain more than five to seven points that are commented by students using terms in line with the concept being studied. A simulation model, an example of which is intractable, is unlikely to quickly teach students.

  3. But the educational situation should be devoid of primitiveness: in addition to five to seven points of the problem under study, two or three connectives in the text must be present. Usually problems are not laid out in life on separate shelves for a consistent solution. Problems in the workplace are usually interconnected with social or psychological problems. It is especially important in teaching the application of course ideas.

Text of the training situation

For example, Irina Ivanova is a sales manager at Lotus Flower, a company specializing in hygiene, cosmetics, and perfumes. She came to this place in connection with the promotion six months ago. A conversation with the chief manager following the results of her work will take place in ten days.

Before that, Irina had been successful for two years in a separate section of the company, for example, she sold hygiene products, and she liked it very much. She was respected, she was popular among sellers and gained many regular customers.

Situation development

Naturally, she was delighted with the promotion and began to work enthusiastically in her new position. However, for some reason, things did not go well. She did not have time to work in the office, because almost all the time she was in the hall and monitored the actions of sellers. I even had to take work home. And still she did not have time: the bosses' request to prepare ideas for the exhibition and sale was fulfilled on the last day, because previously nothing interesting had been thought up, creativity was not such a simple matter. The sick typist could not reprint the paper with Irina's ideas. As a result, by the deadline set by the authorities, Irina did not complete the task. At this moment, the simulation models of instruction would have helped her the most.

After that, everything went wrong. Having spent time talking with a regular client, Irina did not think about the speech when her colleague solemnly received a certificate, she was even late for the ceremony. Then several times her subordinates left workplaces without warning her. The personnel department repeatedly reminded her of the need to draw up a training program on the use of medical cosmetics, but Irina did not succeed in contacting the teacher from the medical institute. She was even late for junior salespeople to represent senior positions. And yet Irina did not prepare a quarterly report with an assortment forecast. And she didn’t even answer a few letters from customers who want to receive the goods by mail. And like a cherry on the cake - a recent altercation with one of the previously highly respected sellers about price tags. It turns out that it’s not so easy to be a good manager.

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Analysis of the situation

The simulation model is primarily a reading of the situation. Here is the next picture of six points with subparagraphs.

  1. There have been changes at the new job. What are their restraining and motivating forces?

  2. Before the changes - the presence of self-esteem and knowledge of the sales mechanism.

  3. Motivation in the desire to succeed, but also to maintain the ability to sell - role conflict.

  4. Management style - a complete inability to give part of the authority to subordinates. Clashes with subordinates can not be avoided.

  5. In a new role: she did not determine the specifics of the position, load size, did not solve the simple problem of reprinting, neglects planning and control, admits non-attendance of subordinates, disrupts the staff training plan, does not know how to organize her time and prioritize, loses creativity - there are no new ideas.

  6. Management style of entrusted staff: allows for vertical conflict, interferes in the affairs of subordinates, is not confident, manages without the help of management.

Problem identification

The structure of simulation models suggests the second step to identify emerging problems for their consistent solution. Here you need to follow the same points, given the analysis, but considering the situation for a different purpose.

  1. Change: are there ways to manage change and what are the ways to reduce resistance to the changes that have occurred.

  2. Leadership styles: why the style chosen by Irina is unsuccessful, and in whose favor it is better to abandon it.

  3. Motivation: what management theory says about stimulating Irina and sellers.

  4. The specifics of work goals: Does Irina know all the details about the new job, what were the goals and how they should have been achieved.

  5. Planning and control: did Irina plan her actions as a manager, were they controlled.

  6. Conflict: what is the reason and problem of the conflict and how to deal with it.

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Thematic ligaments

The use of simulation models helps to build a situation from the origin (motives), revealing the motives of its beginning, to the transition to a new quality. How it will depend on how the analysis is made and what conclusions are made. No situation is complete without connecting themes. Most often, simulation models do not reproduce reality in all aspects, but several such bundles must be present in the game. Here they are as follows.

  1. Irina did not see differences in the work of the manager and seller.

  2. Irina was poorly prepared for the new position.

  3. Irina does not have fundamental knowledge about management.

The development of linking motives

What is possible and what must be done with respect to connecting topics?

  1. First of all, the transfer of information is necessary. Irina's superiors are obliged to present her specific requirements for work immediately after her appointment. Irina should inform her subordinates regarding the style of her management at work.

  2. Secondly, Irina needs to be taught the basics of management, her subordinates - sales methods, and, of course, Irina and subordinates must be trained in interpersonal interaction.

  3. Thirdly, it is necessary to clearly plan the functional responsibilities of Irina as a manager and the activities of the entire department as a whole.

  4. Fourth, there must be proper personnel management: Irina needs help in determining the goal and priority both instantly and long-term, that is, it makes sense for the HR department to plan advanced training for employees in which the company is interested.

This whole topic is directly related only to the transfer of information.

Recommendations for the company

When the game comes to the stage of summing up the conclusions, it becomes clear what simulation models are and how they are useful. The conclusions are very accurate and concrete for almost everyone, because they managed to make out the situation to the smallest detail.

  • Firstly, the manager must coordinate the specifics of work with superiors and communicate the results to subordinates.

  • Secondly, all priorities and goals should be clear to the manager and also explained to the rest of the staff.

Irina needs to master the management technique in managing her own time, in control and planning, in managing people and any conflict, in circulating new information among the team and in its development.

Irina needs to know in detail in the personnel department about the training procedures, as well as about the advanced training of employees in order to apply them as correctly as possible. She will have to improve her professional level on her own, and in the future pass her studies. These recommendations can frighten an unprepared person, so you need to immediately divide them into three sections: immediate implementation, recommendations of medium urgency, and the last point is clearly long-term. It makes sense to Irina and her superiors to discuss the reasons for the failures and do everything so that they do not recur.

Having examined, therefore, an artificially constructed situation, each student will understand what imitation models are.

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Economic Development Models

Socio-economic development has different simulation models from others. This required a separate name to specifically know the scope of this or that situational artificial construction. Dynamic simulation models are designed specifically for predicting the operation of economic systems. The title emphasizes that dynamics is the most important characteristic of such constructions, and they are based on the principles of system dynamics.

The stages of construction have the following sequence of actions: first, a cognitive structuring scheme is built, then statistical data are selected, and the scheme is refined. The next step is the formation of mathematical models that describe cognitive relationships, then the IDM is assembled as a whole. The model is debugged and verified, and finally multivariate calculations, including predictive ones, are performed.

Scripting method

Scenario analysis, which means a simulation model for assessing the risk of a particular project, is needed in order to calculate the dangers on the path to the formation of the project and ways to overcome them. The risk threatening investments can be expressed in the deviation of the cash flow intended for this project, contrary to expectations, and the larger the deviation, the greater the risk. Each project demonstrates a possible range of project results, therefore, by giving them a probabilistic estimate, it is possible to estimate money flows, taking into account expert estimates of the probabilistic generation of all these flows or the magnitude of the deviations of all components of the stream from the expected values.

The scenario method is good because, based on such expert assessments, at least three possible development situations can be built: pessimistic, most real (probable) and optimistic. Simulation models are computer experiments. There is only one difference from reality here - it is not the system itself that produces the action, but its model. Simulation models of systems help out in cases where conducting real experiments is at least unreasonable, and to the maximum - costly and dangerous. Simulation is a way of researching systems without the slightest degree of risk. It is practically impracticable, for example, without imitations to assess the risk of investment projects where only predicted data on costs, sales, prices and other components that determine the risks are used.