Some of the problems that complicate the life of humanity cannot be solved alone. Others cannot be solved even by the whole team. But scientific minds are always trying to come up with new ways to eliminate political, social and economic situations that can cause negative consequences. Thus, for a more effective analysis of problem situations, the Delphi expert method was created.
The essence of effective analysis
The method should conditionally include several parts, each of which is important, in order to satisfy the conditions of this concept, the following criteria are needed: analysts, competent experts, actual problem.
Its essence lies in the fact that experts are given a specific situation for which you can choose a solution using the Delphi method. Each member of the group should offer their own way out of the problem situation. A feature of this analysis is the fact that experts are required to come to a general conclusion. Each of them individually works with the situation, then voices it in a team. They must exchange thoughts and ideas until they come to a common denominator.
Results of the Delphi method
Analysts, after experts provide a solution to the problem, consider each of the approaches, and help formulate a common conclusion. The main idea of the Delphi method is that all experts, despite ideological differences and methods of solution, will have something in common. This group is being sought out by a group of analysts, uniting similarities in all points of view into a single whole, which contributes to a single theoretical solution to the problem. Together, the method of solution chosen by experts and confirmed by analysts is considered the most correct, because experts ultimately come to a common solution. This is the final point of the Delphi method.
Practical history
This method was created in the 60s of the twentieth century. But it was originally associated with the ancient Greek oracle at Delphi. And he appeared by accident. In the 1950s, the US Air Force sponsored a project dealing with changes in various areas of the state’s life. This was one of the first examples of solving problems using the Delphi method. A group of experts was assembled, which, under the control of analysts, with the help of intensive surveys, came to any general conclusion on the chosen topic. Following the example of the Delphi method, many problems were predicted and solved; it proved its effectiveness. Moreover, an expert assessment of the further development of science and the army in this way gained such popularity that in 1964 issues that were beyond the scope of science and the armed forces were analyzed.
The main stages of the study
In order to solve examples using the Delphi method in practice, you need to know its structure. In total, this concept can be divided into several important stages:
- Create sub-questions. The problem itself is sent to the experts. It is proposed to be divided into subparagraphs. Options that are more common than others are selected, then make a list of the most popular.
- The stage of rechecking. The created questionnaire is again sent to the expert group, but this time they are asked to add certain information, which, in their opinion, is lacking in the questionnaire. They look positively at adding new aspects to the situation that need to be considered.
- Selection of solutions. An expert group gathers to discuss and solve various aspects of the problem, which is considered in the form of several components. The priority is the constant rapprochement of expert opinions, as well as the analysis of the most extraordinary or opposite in meaning methods of solving the problem. Experts throughout the stage consult among themselves, in an effort to come to a common solution. They can repeatedly change their points of view. Analysts help experts agree.
- Summarizing. The expert group is engaged in the selection of one common opinion, which, according to the Delphi method, is the most adequate as a solution to the problem. Moreover, the study may have another outcome, namely the lack of consensus on the question. In this case, if all aspects of the problem were considered and no solution was found, then the situation will still receive a certain assessment and recommendations will be made.
Additional research steps
There are stages that help to hone the opinion of the expert group and facilitate its work. Let's analyze in more detail:
- Preparatory. It consists in the selection of an expert group, a group of analysts and the necessary problem.
- The analytical phase. Analysts verify the consistency or inconsistency of all experts on a given issue, and then issue final recommendations on how to solve the problem.
Positive sides
Each way to solve a problem has its positive and negative sides. Consider the positive aspects of the Delphi method:
- Consensus. The main goal of the participants is to come to a common conclusion. From which it follows that in the later stages of the study they will have no disagreement about the issue. It will either be resolved by a general conclusion or will not be resolved at all.
- Distance. This method does not imply the presence of a group of people in one room / city. After all, questionnaires can be answered remotely, as well as offer or refute their own and others' concepts. This makes this method very convenient.
- Forecasting. This method can well predict events in a single version. One option, which, in the opinion of the expert group, should become the most likely, is considered correct.
Negative sides
There are much more negative moments in this technique. Some of them are not very weighty, while others, on the contrary, are capable of breaking apart the entire set of proposed ways to solve the problem. However, this does not mean its inefficiency. Consider the arguments in more detail:
- The narrowness of group thinking. The opinion of the majority is not always the only true one. This is a thesis that does not require evidence. Even though all points of view will be heard, this does not negate the fact that the conclusion will be true or false. And due to the fact that the essence of the method is the adoption of one method, there can be several points of view that are opposite in meaning.
- Conformism. Research may go the wrong way because of a group of conformists seeking to get into the majority. Thus, they start the research on a deliberately false path.
- A lot of time spent. Each stage of the Delphi method lasts at least a day. And given the fact that the steps of the polls and the debriefing can be repeated, the study may be delayed.
- Different areas. A group of experts can be assembled from different institutions and sectors of society, which makes it difficult to summarize the overall results, since due to differences in worldview, it becomes harder for experts to agree with each other.
- The paradox. If you use the "Delphi" method on two different groups of experts, the conclusions made by them can radically differ. And since this method claims that the final recommendations for solving the problem are correct, it turns out that we have two right sets of recommendations at once, which in some cases is excluded.
- Originality and correctness of decisions. The most original or correct decisions may take a secondary place in the hierarchy of recommendations.
An example of using the Delphi method
Surely, the explanation of the essence of this method of decision-making seems too complicated, for which the following is an example of one company that is engaged in the oil field, and wants to get information about the approximate date of the possibility of using robots instead of divers to test platforms underwater.
The company gathers a group of experts from various fields of the oil industry (divers, engineers, ship captains, robot designers, etc.). The expert group is given the task that they solve according to the above scheme. The results are as follows: robots can be used in the period from 2000 to 2050. The spread is too large.
The procedure is repeated. Experts listen to each other's opinions and form a general forecast. As a result, the vast majority of responses were in the framework of 2005-2015. A similar application of the Delphi method allowed the oil company to plan the level of production and sale of robots in the oil industry. But is this method applicable to our country?
The Delphi method: an example in practice in Russia
This method is quite applicable to all spheres of society. The political space is usually a good space to use. An example of using the Delphi method is the task of making the most accurate forecast about the leadership of United Russia in the election of deputies of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
A group of experts from the political sphere of society is gathering (politicians, journalists, analysts, experts in the field of electoral technologies, etc.). After that, the first version of the questionnaire, as well as basic information on this issue, is sent to each participant. Experts evaluate the problem, add information, change some aspects of the question, etc.
After all the work, participants send their profiles to analysts. The results were different, with too much scatter. Therefore, analysts create an extended-form questionnaire that takes into account the opinions of various experts.
Participants get acquainted with the questionnaire, learn each other's opinions about the problem, try to come to a general conclusion. They record their forecasts, taking into account new information, and again send them to analysts. This happens until the results are as similar as possible. According to the results of the study, the chances of United Russia to become the leading party in the elections were about 95%.
