On behalf of the Russian government, a strategy was developed for the country's sustainable development until 2020, which is called “Strategy 2020”. Over a thousand experts worked on it for a year, and in 2011, with the help of HSE and RANEPA experts, they managed the program. This is the second version of the development of the CDD (the concept of long-term development), the first version was completed in 2007 by the Ministry of Economic Development and other departments, and the development was carried out on behalf of the President of the Russian Federation.
First option
The concept (strategy) of sustainable development in the first version was aimed at identifying ways and means to ensure in the long term a sustainable increase in the welfare of citizens of the Russian Federation, national security, dynamic development of the economy, strengthening the position of the Russian Federation in the world community. The development covered the perspective from 2008 to 2020, and the government approved its final text (CRA-2020) in November 2008.
The appearance of the second option was necessary for two reasons. The sustainable development strategy was approved at a time when the global financial and economic crisis intensified. While the concept was being developed, it had not yet affected all countries, only developed ones, to which the Russian Federation did not belong. However, a sustainable development strategy was approved in the fall of 2008, when the crisis came to our country. Realities were changing rapidly, and the result was that even at the time of the adoption of the concept, all its postulates were obsolete.
The crisis
The crisis led to a very sharp and deepest drop in all economic indicators, and therefore a greater number of landmarks, even the first stage of the implementation of the MDG-2020, turned out to be impossible. The National Sustainable Development Strategy initially covered the period from 2007 to 2012. It was planned by the end of this period to achieve an increase in life expectancy by two and a half years.
GDP was supposed to grow by thirty-eight percent, and productivity growth to forty-one percent. GDP was supposed to reduce energy intensity by nineteen percent. Real incomes of the population were planned to increase by fifty-four percent. And there are many other landmarks that could not be reached.
The second reason
By the nature of the development, the national strategy for sustainable development in its first version was clearly departmental, detailing in detail all the quantitative guidelines that had to be achieved by 2020 specifically in each area. However, the problems that faced Russian society and its economy were not analyzed in detail. The way to achieve each goal was formulated declaratively.
For example: “A society based on responsibility and trust of the population in private and state economic institutions should be formed. Social polarization will decrease due to the equal opportunities of all sectors of society and social mobility, the focus of social policy on supporting vulnerable segments of the population and the integration of migrants.” Naturally, such formulations can only ring loudly from their inner emptiness.
Second option
The sustainable development strategy of the Russian Federation in its second version was developed in 2011 by order of the Prime Minister. Twenty-one expert groups were created that were led at the sites of two universities - HSE and RANEPA by their rectors Vladimir Mau and Yaroslav Kuzminov. Several hundred discussions, discussions and meetings took place. The sustainable development strategy of Russia was developed by the Russians and not only - more than a hundred experts from abroad actively participated in creating a plan for the future life of our long-suffering Motherland.
Among the Russians who created the program for which we have been living for the seventh year, in particular, we worked: Lev Yakobson, Yevsey Gurvich, Sergey Drobyshevsky, Vladimir Gimpelson, Ksenia Yudaeva, Isak Frumin, Alexander Auzan, Mikhail Blinkin and many others. Meetings were held regularly, and materials were published on the Internet pages of the website dedicated to Strategy 2020. Many meetings were held in open mode, the work of the groups paid a lot of attention to the press. The strategy of sustainable development of the republic has been developed in almost all CIS countries - in Kazakhstan, Belarus and others.
Final report
Experts divided their work into two phases. In the first half of 2011, until August, development options and measures were worked out that would be consistent with this development. After that, an interim report of six hundred pages was provided to the government.
Further, it was discussed in the ministries and departments and directions for finalizing this document were determined. The final report was prepared in a volume of eight hundred sixty-four pages by December 2011, and in March 2012, the strategy for sustainable socio-economic development in a new version was published (under a longer title).
They asked the people
During 2012, sociological studies were conducted to clarify the attitude in various sectors of society towards the proposals contained in Strategy 2020. It should be noted that this document showed much more opponents than adherents.
Particular claims were presented to the materials presented by group 3 (Ksenia Yudaeva, Tatyana Maleva), who developed the reform of the pension system, group 5 (Leonid Gokhberg), which outlined the transition to the growth of innovation, group 6 (Alexander Galushka, Sergey Drobyshevsky) - on tax policy, group 7 (Vladimir Gimpelson and others) regarding the labor market, migration policy and vocational education.
The work of group 8 (Isak Frumin, Anatoly Kasprzhak) regarding the new school was criticized by everyone without exception. No one believed the conclusions of Vladimir Nazarov and Polina Kozyreva on reducing inequality and overcoming poverty. Specialists opposed German Gref and Oleg Vyugin. And so on. For the people, the strategy of sustainable economic development did not arouse the slightest enthusiasm.
Building
There are twenty-five chapters in Strategy 2020, which are grouped into six sections. There is also an application in this document that describes the “budgetary maneuver” (this is a change in federal budget expenditures), a list of measures in each direction of development, which were also considered by experts. The sections in the document are as follows:
1. A new growth model.
2. Macroeconomics. Basic growth conditions.
3. Social policy. Human capital.
4. Infrastructure. Comfortable environment, balanced development.
5. An effective state.
6. The external contour of development.
The "Strategy 2020", in that and in another version, is trying to harness the "ox and trembling doe" into one cart. Of course, we need new models of economic growth and social policy. The economy must have been rebuilt: with the onset of the crisis, domestic demand began to plummet, and the first version of the "strategy" was based on its growth. Russian exports are almost completely rebuilt due to the imposed sanctions, so it makes no sense to rely on previous prices. However, Strategy 2020 also did not evade utopian declarations: the country needs economic growth of at least five percent a year, and it should not be based on the export of raw materials and the redistribution of resources to sectors where there is low efficiency. Is it too far from our reality?
Maneuver
The main idea of Strategy 2020 is the very maneuver that should have enabled the use of previously unused competitive factors. For example, such. High quality of human potential and scientific potential. Where to get it from? Among the working professions, professionals have long since ended, because there are no factories or an appropriate education, and Russian science works in the best case - also not very well - in the military-industrial complex and the space industry, the bulk of the best minds long ago on earning abroad countries.
Social policy is built by experts in such a way that the interests of not the poorest segments of the population, but the layer that implements innovative development, that is, the very mythical "middle class" that can choose any model of consumption and labor, are protected. Experts assumed in their growth model a consistent decrease in inflation in order to adopt new budget rules that would regulate budget expenditures (depending on oil prices). They considered the increase in spending ineffective and unjustified, which is precisely what they see as an obstacle to stability and a balanced budget. Five years later, it is clear that social policy is directed by experts in a completely different direction from the people. The external environment has not become less aggressive in relation to business, the business climate has not improved, the competitive environment may have been preserved, but not all.
Post-industrial country
Experts saw our economy in the near future post-industrial, based on service industries that are focused on the development of human capital, that is, it is an economy where medicine, education, media and information technologies, even design, will be most important. Here, of course, competitive advantages would have been if it had not been wasted through constant underfunding of all social systems, as well as due to extremely inefficient management.
"Strategy 2020" would like to restore and consolidate these comparative advantages of our country in the field of medicine, education, culture, but where to find them now? Those human resources that were competitive have grown old, and new ones are being taught extremely poorly. It is now simply scary to be treated with young doctors, there is practically nothing to learn from young teachers, nothing good has happened with culture so far either.
More maneuver
By the post-industrial economy, the country should make this “budgetary maneuver”, that is, change priorities in budget spending. Experts suggest that by 2020 they will finance infrastructure four percent more than GDP, and to balance the budget, they will cut the same four percent in security and defense, spending on the state apparatus, and also reduce subsidies to enterprises. At the discussions of this strategy, ordinary citizens of Russia were outraged, called such a plan irresponsible, some even used the word "wrecking."
Just in case, experts provided more than one scenario for the development of each direction: if reforms are not active enough, inertial scenarios are used, as well as tough ones, during which losses are not compensated by the parties, and optimal reform scenarios have been developed when the interests of the participating groups are taken into account as much as possible. Politicians choose the best, of course.
Experts and power
When the final report was published, the curators of this work counted on the unconditional support of the main proposals from the president and the government, despite the fact that differences of opinion were present initially. This is especially true of pension reform.
As a result, many provisions of Strategy 2020 have already been included in the program of government agencies: these are parking problems in the capital (author Mikhail Blinkin), the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development are introducing a budget rule that regulates the level of public debt and budget expenditures, for example. Pension reform is also taking place on the proposals of Strategy 2020, which causes an active and very emotional discussion. What can I say about housing and communal services reform …
