The Russian economy is a multicomponent complex of economic and other activities, consisting of a relatively developed agrarian and industrial sector and the service sector. Despite the development of private entrepreneurship and the privatization of a number of economic facilities, the state and state-owned companies control about 70 percent of the country's GDP. At the same time, the current socio-economic situation in Russia can be considered unsatisfactory.
Russia's place in the global economy
In the global economy, Russia ranks sixth in terms of GDP. In 2017, the country's total gross domestic product amounted to about $ 4 trillion. In terms of nominal GDP, our country is in 11th place in the world, and its volume is $ 1, 527 billion. At the same time, in terms of GDP per person, the Russian Federation is only in 48th place.
The total contribution of Russia and the world economy is also small and amounts to 3.2%, and in the world assets sector - 1 percent.
Changes in the country's economy in the historical past
In the 19th century, Russia's social and economic situation was at a very low level. In the Soviet period, the country's economy was stable and planned. The decisive role was played by the economic sectors: mining, manufacturing, and agriculture. GDP per capita was small, but there was virtually no social inequality. But in the late 80s, something went wrong, as a result of which the previous system collapsed, and it was replaced by a poorly organized market system. A sharp decline in production, a rise in prices, a fall in investments, an increase in foreign loans, a decrease in the income of residents and other negative phenomena began.
At the same time, the economy shifted from planned to market. Despite the strict tax laws, there was a systematic tax evasion. Also characteristic of the 90s was the widening gap in the standard of living of different Russian regions.
Zero Years Economy
Zero years were the most successful in terms of rebuilding the Russian economy. Annual GDP growth during this period ranged from 5.1-5.2% in 2001 and 2008 to 1% in 2000 and 8.5% in 2007. There has been growth in the industrial and agricultural sectors, as well as construction. Incomes of the population grew. The poverty reduction was 16% (from 29 in 2000 to 13 in 2007).
Taxation has become more liberal, and tax collection has increased. For income tax, a flat scale was established. In general, the number of taxes decreased by 3 times (from 54 to 15). In particular, income tax was reduced.
In 2001, ownership of land was introduced. Other reforms were also carried out: banking, pension, preferential, labor and other types. Since 2006, the ruble has become a freely convertible currency.
The economy of the country after 2010
Until 2014, the state of the economy remained favorable. After overcoming the local crisis of 2008-2009, there was a rapid recovery and further growth of the country's GDP. In 2012, Russia joined the World Trade Organization, which could affect the future of the country. From the same year, a progressive trend in the economy began to break. If in 2010 and 2011 the annual GDP growth was about 4%, then in 2012 it was 3.3, and in 2013 it was only 1.3 percent. The growth of industrial production was even more sharply reduced. The export of capital from the country increased.
A sharper deterioration in the economy began in 2014, which is largely due to a drop in oil prices, and at the end of this year, with the introduction of economic sanctions. The decline in household incomes began, a sharp increase in capital outflows was noted. Officially, the economic crisis started in December 2014.
The socio-economic situation of modern Russia
The sharpest decline in the socio-economic well-being of the country occurred in 2015-2016. Oil prices collapsed almost 4 times, reaching the bottom in early 2016, after which they began to gradually recover. This led to a sharp weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro. Export revenue fell sharply.
During this period, household incomes decreased markedly, while prices, on the contrary, rose. Rising prices hit particularly hard on the most significant consumer goods: food and medicine. The cost of transport services has increased. Unemployment has risen sharply (primarily due to unofficial unemployed). The peak of the decline in household incomes fell in 2016, and GDP - in 2015. This is evidenced by the data of Rosstat on the socio-economic situation of Russia.
A significant number of employees began to receive wages below the subsistence level established at that time.
In 2017, the situation began to gradually improve. The country's GDP growth and a sharp decline in inflation were noted. Salaries in some sectors increased, but overall, income continued to decline. The debt burden on the population and the number of hopeless debtors increased.
In 2018, despite a sharp (up to $ 75 per barrel) increase in oil prices, the socio-economic situation in the country remained tense.
Features of the economy at the end of 2017 - the first quarter of 2018
In 2017, significant changes took place in the global economy, affecting our country. The OPEC + Russia deal, which has already become historic in scale, stimulated a rise in hydrocarbon prices. After the collapse of oil prices in early 2016 to $ 25-30 per barrel, they began to recover gradually, but until mid-2017 they remained in the region of $ 50 per barrel. From the second half of this year, over the course of several months, they rose to 70 - 75 dollars per barrel, and then entrenched at this level. At the same time, there was a rise in prices for other Russian export goods: metals, coal, wood.
These values are much higher than the basic indicators laid down in the budget ($ 40 per barrel). Thus, this should be an incentive for the restoration of the country's economy. However, the opinions of experts are not so optimistic. Many note the urgent need for change that could be the basis for future growth. While the incomes of the population continue to gradually decline, and the economy is growing too slowly or even stagnating. At the end of 2017, a decrease in industrial production was noted, and household incomes decreased this year, contrary to forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, which gave a slight increase.
Now there is no consensus on the future development of the situation. Among experts there are both optimists and pessimists. Optimists, like officials, expect a resumption of economic growth in 2018.
Forecasts for 2018
Information on the socio-economic situation of Russia is provided by official structures. According to economists, in 2018 inflation will be 4%, and GDP growth - 1.44%. At the same time, population incomes are expected to grow up to 2 percent. Total investment will increase by 2.2 - 3.9%. However, according to Oreshkin, due to the lack of required reforms, economic growth will be lower than is necessary for the progressive development of the country.
Among the negative factors, experts point out the following:
- The domestic economy is highly dependent on hydrocarbon prices. In this regard, they are not observing any positive developments.
- Inadequate level of government.
- An unfavorable demographic situation and an increase in the number of pensioners.
- The sanctions policy of the West, which limits the possibilities for the development of the country.
Among other factors, analysts note the resumption of growth in capital outflows.
The situation in the regions
In Russia, the difference between the level of economic development in different administrative entities is pronounced. The socio-economic situation of the regions of Russia is often not the same and may vary in different ways. In the first place according to these parameters is the city of Moscow. Then follows the Republic of Tatarstan, then the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. In fifth place is the Moscow region, in sixth - Tyumen. The seventh line is occupied by the Krasnodar Territory, and the eighth - the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District. In ninth and tenth places are Yakutia and Krasnoyarsk Territory, respectively.
In the last places are: Kurgan region, Karachay-Cherkessia, Pskov region, Kalmykia, Ingushetia, Ivanovo region, Kostroma region and some other regions of the country.
