What is the dynamics of fertility in Russia? In general, the birth rate is the number of babies born per year. This indicator directly affects the dynamics of the population of certain countries. Where fertility is high, there is usually a high and natural increase; there is an increase in population. This is especially true for the countries of Central Africa.
The article discusses the dynamics of fertility in Russia and statistics on years.
World dynamics
On the whole, the birth rate in the world is gradually decreasing, and there is hope that the world's population will not exceed 9 billion people. Otherwise, it is fraught with the risk of environmental and humanitarian disasters. At the moment, Africa mainly maintains the traditions of large families. In China, India, and a number of other Asian countries, fertility declined, including to the level of simple population reproduction. However, the population by inertia is still growing, since the main mortality is attributable to representatives of the older age group, whose share (also by inertia) still remains relatively small. But in the long run, population growth in most Asian countries will obviously stop. In South Korea, for example, it is not only not growing, but even rapidly falling.
It is not surprising, therefore, that the eyes of the UN are now directed precisely at the countries of Africa, where many children are still having children for their families, which causes a demographic boom. Therefore, the rise of the world's population will still continue.
In some countries, the population is declining, and natural growth is negative. Among them is Russia. Although, due to the influx of migrants, the number of inhabitants may not be decreasing, the birth rate dynamics in Russia is rather negative over the years.
Population of Russia
Russia is a multinational country with a large population. It is distributed unevenly across the territory. On average, population density is quite low. In 2018, the number of inhabitants of the country amounted to 146 million 880 thousand 432 people. This corresponds to 9th place in the world. The population density is only 8.58 people / km 2. More than 68% of Russians live in the European territory of the country, which occupies only a fifth of the total territory. The European part is 9 times denser than the Asian. Extremely high population density in Moscow - 4626 people / km 2. The lowest level is recorded in Chukotka (0.07 people / km 2).
The urban population in the country is 80.9%. This largely determines the low birth rate. Currently, in many countries of the world, especially in Asia, there is a movement of residents from rural regions to cities, which leads to a decrease in the birth rate. The situation remains the same only in Africa.
In total, over 200 nationalities are recorded in Russia. In our country, a large proportion of people of advanced age.
Fertility in the recent history of Russia
In the Soviet period, the birth rate in the country was significant and amounted to over 2.1 units. In cities, this figure was 1.9, and in rural areas, 3.0-3.1. So many children had (on average) Soviet families. For the reproduction of the population, a figure of 2 or higher is required.
A sharp drop in the birth rate was observed in the 90s. The level was especially low in 1999, when the average birth rate was 1.17 people. Then there was a gradual growth, which stopped in 2015 and was replaced by a new wave of decline, including a deterioration in living conditions in the country. Thus, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia are quite contradictory.
Natural population growth
The natural population growth is the difference between fertility and mortality. Until the 90s of the 20th century, it was positive, and then negative. He entered the neutral zone only in 2012. This was due to a simultaneous increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality. However, mortality still remained significantly higher than under the USSR. This indicates the adverse effect of a market economy on the health of citizens.
Regional features
Fertility, mortality, and natural growth have different dynamics in different regions of the Russian Federation. In the Asian part of the country, fertility is higher and mortality is lower. Accordingly, there is higher natural growth. The worst situation for all indicators in the areas of the central part of the ETR. These regions are rightly called endangered. Mortality here reaches more than 16 people. per 1000 inhabitants per year. And the lowest values are in the oil and gas producing regions of Western Siberia - only 5-8 people per 1000. The birth rate there is also good. The result is high natural growth.
Features of mortality in Russia
Unlike other countries, in Russia the main culprit in mortality (60% of deaths) is cardiovascular disease. Low affluence, poor lifestyle, poor state of medicine, ecology, drunkenness and smoking, poor quality of food and (probably) medications, a lot of stress (due to difficult and unpredictable living conditions), overwork at work, etc. their jets into a common cauldron in which death is prepared. Life expectancy is very low for men in Russia. This indicator is one of the worst in the world.
Life expectancy in our country is much lower than in several other countries, including developing ones. Even in Ukraine, it is slightly higher.
The dynamics of fertility in Russia in recent years
In recent years, the country has seen a clear deterioration in demographic indicators. Some attribute this to a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age. However, it is more likely that the root of the problem is not only that. Indeed, if life becomes worse and harder every year, then the enthusiasm for having new children will certainly not increase. Moreover, according to statistics, most of the poor in Russia are just members of families with children.
Wikipedia prudently completes its schedules for more prosperous years, which is typical for this publication (to show that everything is fine with us). However, Rosstat data for recent years speak of the development of a trend towards a drop in the birth rate in Russia.
Its decline began in 2016. Then it fell by 2.6% compared to the previous year. In 2017, this process accelerated sharply. Relative to 2016, 11.3% fewer children were born in the country. In part, this provision was associated with a natural decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, but the socio-economic crisis also played a significant role.
2018 continued the same trend. So, in the first 8 months of this year, 5.2% fewer people were born in the country than in the same period of 2017.
Obviously, the total decline over the past three years is significant. In general, the birth rate in the world is also gradually decreasing, however, the abnormally sharp decline in Russia may be due to social reasons.
Decrease in an indicator was noted in 83 subjects of the Russian Federation.
Mortality in Russia
The current dynamics of fertility and mortality are quite interconnected. The mortality rate is even more associated with the socio-economic well-being of the country. A feature of 2018 was the imposition of two trends:
- birth rate decline;
- increase in mortality.
All this led to a natural population decline of 170 thousand people per year, and it became a record over the past 10 years. True, the growth in mortality is small - only 15, 000 people. This is more likely to be psychological than demographic. Why the country has a high mortality rate, we have already said. And the fact that it is growing (if this is not an accidental fluctuation) may indicate a further worsening of the situation.
The excess of mortality over fertility was 1.2 times. However, in some individual regions the situation is much worse. So, in every third subject of Russia the excess is 1.5-2 times.
At the same time, the birth rate is falling in 83 out of 85 subjects, and the mortality rate is growing in 54 out of 85. A decrease in migration flow to the country by 1.5 times was also noted. As a result, for the first time since 2011, the country's population has actually decreased.
Expert Opinion
According to the director of the Loko-Invest analytical department, Kirill Tremasov, such a demographic situation can be considered dramatic. However, he does not know what exactly the decline in fertility is connected with. But regarding the increase in mortality, it is more definite. This, in his opinion, is the result of a decrease in the quality and accessibility of medical services.
