Under the population of the Earth is meant the total number of people living on it. It is characterized by intense, but uneven growth. In 2018, another maximum reached 7.6 billion people. Now the number of inhabitants is growing by 80-95 million people annually. Since 1990, this figure has been within these boundaries, but until this year, the population grew with acceleration. As for the relative values of growth, they gradually decrease. Record values were reached in 1963, when the growth was 2.2% per year. Now it is approximately 1.2% per year. Moreover, in the last 2 years, the percentage has even increased slightly, which, of course, cannot be considered a positive achievement.
2018 population growth
In 2018, population growth is 91.8 million people per year. On average, there are 252487 more people on the planet per day. This population is quite a decent city. Thus, the dynamics of the world population is quite negative and may indicate the development of the problem of overpopulation.
Now demographic indicators are kept in most countries of the world, and on special foreign sites all numbers are displayed in real time. This allows you to monitor the situation without leaving your home.
Possible growth limits
Probably the critical value for the planet is the number of 10 billion people. After the exhaustion of resources of fertile lands and many types of minerals against the background of a high population density, the quality of life of people can sharply decrease. This, in turn, will become a natural factor that will make further population growth impossible.
Examples of uncontrolled growth in numbers followed by depletion of the food supply and depopulation are quite common in nature. This is especially true for cases when a person relocates animals to new regions that do not have natural enemies there. However, the difference is that this happens only in a small area. As for people, then the problem will be global in nature and, possibly, will provoke migration flows.
What can migration do
The thing is that the dynamics of the population of the regions of the world are quite different. A striking example is the population contrast between Russia and China. China has a very high population density and is growing (including encouraged by the authorities of this country). In Russia, on the contrary, population density is low, and mortality exceeds birth rates. Obviously, everything goes to the fact that the Chinese, sooner or later, will settle in Siberia. Or, at least, they will use its resources, which is happening now, but so far on a relatively small scale.
The situation in India is somewhat more complicated, since it does not border Russia, but is surrounded by deserts, mountains, and oceans. However, UN statistics show that the migration flow from India is quite significant.
Due to migration, there may be some balancing of population density between different regions of the globe, however, even in this case, the population will not be able to grow indefinitely and a critical limit will nevertheless come.
Average population density
The population of our planet is distributed unevenly on its surface. The greatest concentration of inhabitants is observed in East and South Asia, and the smallest - in deserts and polar regions. In large cities, population density can be huge. If we distribute all people evenly over the land surface, then there will be 55.7 people on each square kilometer.
Where is the highest birth rate
Despite the incredibly high population growth figures, the overall long-term trend is aimed at reducing fertility. In many countries, including Russia, South Korea, Japan, Europe, the natural population growth is negative. The highest birth rate (from 4 children per woman) is observed in 43 countries of the world, of which 38 are in Africa.
At the same time, the situation in Asia is beginning to change. So, in India, Myanmar, Bangladesh now only 1.7–2.5 children per woman are born, which means that there is hope for stabilization of the population in the future. In China, the population is growing, but slowly. This is due to the support of the birth rate by the central authorities of this country, for whom the economy is more important than ecology.
World Population Projections
Nobody knows for certain how the world’s population will change in the future. According to the UN forecast, by 2050 it will increase by 2.2 billion people. This is slightly less than the assumption that the current growth rate will continue until 2050. The reason for the slowdown may be ongoing urbanization, a change in the attitude of women to the family, an increase in the level of education of people, the spread of fashion for homosexuality and other similar perversions. Also, this can be facilitated by the massive spread of protection against conception, environmental degradation, food problems and areas for growing crops, global warming, problems with overpopulation and other reasons. This means that the dynamics of the population of the Earth can show a tendency to its gradual stabilization. However, this will probably not happen soon.
As for the dynamics of the population of the countries of the world, according to the UN, the population will decrease most strongly in Japan, Germany, Russia, Poland, China, Ukraine, Thailand, as well as in Romania and Serbia. Population decline is also possible in other regions of Asia. At the same time, in Africa it will grow rapidly.
And what do Russian sociologists think
According to domestic experts, sooner or later, trends in depopulation will prevail in the world. Even despite an increase in life expectancy, a decrease in the birth rate can lead to a decrease in the world population. According to Igor Beloborodov, the main causes of depopulation will be divorce, abortion, homosexuality, a change in attitude towards the family. In his opinion, this will have disastrous consequences for the economy and geopolitics. However, he does not write which ones.
Another specialist, Anatoly Vishnevsky, is also of the opinion of the upcoming depopulation, but with regard to the consequences, his opinion is directly opposite. He believes that a decrease in the population will have a beneficial effect on the development of mankind and will help to reduce the anthropogenic pressure on the environment, as well as slow down the process of depletion of non-renewable natural resources. In his opinion, the optimal number is 2.5 billion people, which was observed in the middle of the 20th century. To achieve this result, it is necessary to reduce the birth rate in the world to below two children per woman. So far, nothing of the kind has been observed, with the exception of individual countries.
However, according to Anatoly Vishnevsky, a similar result can be achieved in a natural way. If by 2100 the population will increase to 11 billion people. (UN forecast), this will lead to the rapid depletion of resources, followed by the death of most of humanity. As a result, only 2-3 billion people will remain on Earth. Such a forecast, of course, is apocalyptic.
The situation in Russia
With regard to Russia, the scenarios are not too optimistic. Now the dynamics of the country's population is largely determined by the flow of migrants. Associate Professor of the Department of Sociology of Moscow State University A. B. Sinelnikov believes that in Western Europe and in our country the indigenous population will die out and be replaced by migrants from China and other Asian countries, which will make up the majority of the country's population after 2050. As a result, the dynamics of the number and composition of the population may become completely different than now.
