Natural population decline is a problem that is one of the most pressing in the world. The situation arises as a result of the predominance of mortality over fertility.
The concepts of "natural population decline" and "population growth"
Fertility and mortality are processes that have a decisive influence on the demographic situation in a particular state or in the world as a whole. Both indicators are quantitative. Fertility reflects the number of newborns for a certain period in a certain territory, it is calculated, as a rule, in the form of a general coefficient - the number of live births per 1000 population. In addition, fertility can be determined by such indicators:
- age-specific fertility rate (number of newborns per 1000 women of the same age);
- total fertility rate (number of newborns in a certain territory for a certain period per woman).
Mortality is defined as the ratio of the number of deaths over a certain period and in a certain territory to the population. The smallest mortality to date is recorded in Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, the highest - in Swaziland, Lesotho, Botswana and other countries with low living standards, health care, and the HIV epidemic.
Birth and death rates have a direct impact on other statistics in demographics, such as natural decline and population growth. A natural population decline (or a negative coefficient of natural growth) is recorded if mortality exceeds the birth rate. Otherwise, we can talk about natural growth, which is the basis for population growth.
List of countries by population decline
The largest natural population decline is characteristic for many countries of Eastern Europe. The list of depopulating states (in terms of the rate of natural population decline from the worst demographic situation) included:
- Bulgaria. Mortality in Bulgaria is almost one and a half times higher than the birth rate for several decades.
- Estonia. Part of the natural population decline in Estonia falls not only on changes in the ratio of births and deaths, but also on the outflow of migrants, including Russian speakers.
- Latvia. The natural decline in Latvia is also significantly affected by migration processes.
- Ukraine. Political instability, falling living standards, civil war and loss of territories - all these, together with a decrease in the birth rate, are the main reasons for the natural decline in the population in Ukraine.
- Belarus The population of Belarus has been steadily declining for several years in a row.
- Georgia. The demographic situation began to deteriorate rapidly with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
- Lithuania. Like many union republics, the situation in Lithuania began to deteriorate after independence.
- Hungary. For several years, Hungary has been on the list of low birth rates.
- Japan. The birth rate in Japan has been falling since the seventies. It’s just right to say, if not about disaster, then about the difficult demographic situation so precisely.
- Russia. The demographic problems of the Russian Federation will be discussed in more detail in the corresponding section below.
- Slovenia. To date, nineteen thousand deaths occur in twenty-one thousand births. Natural growth is positive, but the population growth rate leaves much to be desired.
- Moldova. Following the declaration of independence, the population of Moldova declined by about three hundred thousand.
- Armenia. Population decline has been clearly seen since 1995.
- Bosnia The state is witnessing a stable aging of the population.
- Croatia. The number of deaths exceeds the number of births, a natural population decline has been observed in Croatia for several years in a row.
The map below graphically represents the rate of natural population growth in the world.
The dynamics of the population of Russia by years
A census conducted in 1897 registered 125 million people living in the Russian Empire. At that time, 67.5 million people lived in the modern borders of the Russian Federation. The natural decline in the population of Russia from then until 1994, when the decline in population growth began, was observed only once. So, in 1946, after the Great Patriotic War, the number of inhabitants decreased from almost 111 million (in 1941) to 97.5 million.
The graph below shows the natural increase and dynamics of fertility and mortality since 1950. It can be seen that the natural population decline (at that time not yet a negative natural increase, but a visible deterioration in the demographic situation) together with a decline in the birth rate were observed in the postwar years. Then the situation stabilized. The next significant deterioration is observed with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then, due to the unfavorable political situation and the deterioration in the quality of life of the population, the birth rate decreased and the mortality rate increased.
The population of the Russian Federation
At present, the population of Russia is 146.8 million people. In the last few years (since 2010), the population of the Russian Federation has been slowly but increasing year by year. At the same time, the demographic situation as a whole leaves much to be desired.
Actual demographic situation: main trends
Actual demographic trends in the Russian Federation are as follows:
- the lowest life expectancy of men among European countries (62.8 years);
- “Demographic waves": the extremely low number of people born in the forties, seventies and nineties;
- the extinction of the indigenous population is somewhat offset by migration growth;
- the number of children per woman fell from two (in 1988 the figure was 2.2 children) to 1.24, while more than two are needed for stable population growth;
- fertility is increasing due to regions with traditionally early motherhood;
- the number of Russians in national composition is significantly reduced, the indigenous population is being replaced by migrants;
- a decline in the quality of life, which is both the cause and the consequence of the demographic crisis - many countries with natural population decline face unfavorable economic and political conditions, as well as other problems.
The main causes of natural population decline
There are several groups of factors that influence the emergence of a demographic crisis, but it is not always possible to identify the dominant factors.
- Demo-economic: a general decrease in fertility rates and an increase in mortality, which is characteristic of most post-industrial states.
- Socioeconomic: decline in living standards, uncertainty about tomorrow, the transition from socialism to a market economy, fear of having children.
- Sociomedical: general deterioration in the health of the population, mass alcoholism, drug addiction, increased mortality rates.
- Socioethical: psychological depression of the population, a high level of violence, the popularization of abortion, the collapse of the institution of the family, the spread of childfree ideas, the degradation of public morality.
Forecasts of the demographic situation in Russia
The forecast regarding the current demographic situation is currently not favorable. If you do not raise the birth rate now, then by 2025, to stabilize the situation, an indicator of the total fertility rate of 3.41 children per woman will be needed.
With current trends, it can be expected that the population of the Russian Federation will drop to 80 million by 2080. According to pessimistic forecasts, this will happen even earlier - in 2060. According to many scientists and politicians, with such a number, it will not be possible to maintain control of the territory of the Russian Federation within today's borders.
