The concept of unemployment, in accordance with the ILO methodology, which Rosstat uses in a modified form, is the ratio of the number of economically active population of the country aged 15 to 72 to people who at the time of the study were seeking to find work or were interested in finding a job.
The specifics of assessing unemployment in Russia
The unemployment rate in Russia will be determined by taking into account two parameters:
- The number of calls to the employment service.
- Analysis of the results of population surveys on problems that are carried out within 0.6% of the total population of the country.
Each quarter in Russia, a survey of about 65 thousand people aged 15 to 72 years is carried out. Over the year, the number of persons examined reaches about 260 thousand people.
Rosstat data
According to sample surveys of the Rosstat population, in April 2015, the unemployment rate in Russia reached 5.8%. This amounts to about 4.4 million people. Employment services recorded less than 1 million unemployed. It was this information that the president of the country was guided by during his direct speech with the report on the results of the year in April 2015. According to opinion polls, in February 2015, about 27% of the population noted a decrease in the number of employees at enterprises during the end of 2014 - the beginning of 2015. According to information provided by Rosstat, over the past decade, the unemployment rate in Russia has varied between 5.3% in 2014 and 8.2% in 2009, which many people remember as crisis. In general, in the last year, according to the figures, the situation has only improved.
The unemployment rate in Russia in January - April 2015
In accordance with the studies from January to April, the highest unemployment rate was recorded in the Republic of Ingushetia. The indicator reached a value of 29.9% in April of this year. In the other North Caucasian republics and in Kalmykia, in the Transbaikal Territory and in Sevastopol, in the territory of the Republic of Tyva and in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, unemployment reached 10%. Indicators within 3% were recorded only in Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the central part of the country, the indicator either falls below or does not exceed the natural unemployment rate in Russia (5.8%). In some regions, unemployment reaches a value of 6-8% of the total active population, with an average of 7%. Official statistics do not give any reason for panic.
Search Query Statistics
The dynamics of unemployment in Russia is successfully tracked by the number of search queries with the word "vacancy." So, from March 2013 to April 2015, the number of requests increased by 94.2%. This has become the highest over the past two years. A very illogical situation is being formed. Despite a systematic improvement in official numbers, people intensified their job search. Doubt evokes the current situation. In March 2013, the official unemployment rate was only 5.7%, which corresponded to the number of requests on the Internet. Accordingly, the increase in unemployment in March 2015 caused an increase in jobseekers on the Internet by 1.94 times. If you transfer the number of requests with the word "vacancy" to a percentage indicator, it should have been equal to 11%. In fact, an increase of only 0.1% was officially announced. The phenomenon is easily explained by the fact that there is not only official, but also a hidden unemployment rate in Russia. The number of those who are officially registered at work, but at the same time either works part-time or is not busy at all, is increasing. Searching for vacancies on the Internet is one of the most popular areas today. Even those people who are under the threat of dismissal resort to it, which also lays a certain imprint on the numbers.
Employment Monitoring
In February 2015, FOM representatives conducted a general monitoring of the situation in the country. In accordance with the information provided, the following statistics were obtained:
- A loss of work among relatives was noted by 31% of respondents.
- At least 27% of all participants in the monitoring announced a reduction in their enterprises.
- 39% of respondents focused on the high probability of losing their jobs.
- At least 19% of the study participants talked about hidden unemployment within their companies.
If we compare the situation with the crisis of 2008, when the unemployment rate was incredibly high, today everything is more or less stable, which is confirmed by official data. At the same time, many respondents report a worsening situation.
How was the situation in 2014?
The unemployment rate in Russia in 2014, many experts recall as a critical moment. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, at that time the number of economically unoccupied persons was equal to 151 thousand people. Against the backdrop of the current economic situation, experts did not stop talking about further deterioration. Authorized representatives of Rosstat were able to calculate: the unemployment rate in Russia in 2014 in September was only 4.9%, but the October figures were much worse, at 5.1%. An analysis of the situation showed that the most affected were people who were involved in the private sector. The forecast was made that in the coming year a high level of unemployment in Russia, including black, will be recorded.
Unemployment during the crisis of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015
During the crisis of 2008-2009, the first information on the growth of unemployment was received in the media in October 2008. The main wave covered the country only after 7-8 months, from January to April 2009. Significant differences in indicators were observed in a regional context. Information about the creation of new jobs, which was often announced at that time, was considered by experts as unfavorable. For example, the 40 thousand jobs that were created in the Far East, according to information provided by EMISS, have not changed much amid the fact that the official status of "unemployed" was assigned to 224.2 thousand people. Compared to the problems of 2008, the unemployment rate in Russia in 2015 has a completely different character. The increase in the indicator is due to an increase in hidden unemployment, which makes it impossible to soberly and rationally evaluate the processes taking place in the country's economy. Positive social sentiment can be maintained at the expense of low official figures, which, according to most analysts and industry experts, are far from reality. The current situation negatively affects the welfare of the standard of living of the population.
What are the differences between the situation of 2008 and 2014
The 2014 unemployment rate in Russia is not growing officially, as it was in 2008. This is due to the different nature of management decisions, the introduction of new programs to combat unemployment and the growth of the hidden indicator, which is virtually impossible to reflect in Rosstat reports. The problem lies in the time delay between the adopted management decisions and the period when they begin to produce the expected results. The complex of measures is based on professional retraining of personnel, which not only does not give an instant effect, but also does not provide momentary employment. The situation is aggravated by the fact that Ulyukaev, who holds the post of head of the Ministry of Economy, put forward a proposal to stop funding programs to combat unemployment due to the fact that the official unemployment rate in the Russian regions was much better than expected.
What will happen in 2015?
Against the backdrop of a catastrophic drop in oil prices at the beginning of 2015 (January-February) and with a parallel weakening of the ruble, economists spoke of the state economy entering a recession. Answering the question of what level of unemployment in Russia will be in 2015, many focused on the inevitability of reductions due to the freezing of many planned and ongoing projects, as well as in the event of the final closure of many companies. The domestic economic situation in the country did not help to anticipate massive unemployment rates. If in 2009 it was possible to observe a value of 8.3%, by the end of 2015 you should not expect an indicator of more than 6.4% against the background of 5.5% in 2014. In comparison with other countries of the world, the course of events is not catastrophic. So, Spain for several years can not cope with the indicator of 25%, Greece - with 25.8%, and France and Austria - with 10%.
