economy

Methodology for forecasting income. Budget revenue planning

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Methodology for forecasting income. Budget revenue planning
Methodology for forecasting income. Budget revenue planning

Video: Monthly Budgeting & Forecasting Model 2024, July

Video: Monthly Budgeting & Forecasting Model 2024, July
Anonim

The methodology for predicting the income of the budget of the settlement is implemented in the context of specific types of deductions, in relation to which the administration is vested with the powers of the main manager of the funds. It is used to analyze the amount of amounts that are expected to be received in the next financial period from the population, organizations, institutions. The administration makes a decision on the approval of the methodology for forecasting income.

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Calculation Methods

Budget revenue planning is carried out by:

  1. Direct calculation. This method is based on the direct use of the estimated indicators (cost and volume), levels of rates and other quantities that determine the value of the expected amounts.

  2. Averaging. This methodology for forecasting revenue receipts is implemented on the basis of calculating the average amount of contributions for a period of at least 3 years, or for the entire period of replenishment of the MO treasury with appropriate types of contributions, if it does not exceed three years.

The administration may provide other methods of settlement.

Payment Categories

The developed methodology for forecasting budget revenues is used in the calculation of the expected:

  1. Amounts deducted from the rental of material assets transferred to the territorial administration bodies and institutions created by them in operational management. An exception is the property of autonomous and municipal budget organizations.

  2. The rent, funds from the exercise of rights to conclude agreements on the transfer to use of land owned by the administrative-territorial units included in the Moscow Region. The exception is allotments of autonomous and municipal budget structures.

  3. Other amounts deducted from the use of material assets that are the property of the administrative-territorial units included in the MO. An exception is property of municipal autonomous and budgetary institutions, unitary, state-owned enterprises, including enterprises.

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To analyze the expected amount of deduction of these amounts, the methodology for forecasting incomes is used, based on direct and average methods of calculation.

Rent

The methodology for forecasting income includes the calculation of the amounts that can be transferred by users of land in the coming fiscal year. To do this, use the following equation:

A = C x P, in which:

  • rent - A;

  • allotment market value - C;

  • Central Bank refinancing rate - R.

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The price of the land is determined on the basis of an assessment made no more than six months before the signing of the lease. The amount that is expected to be deducted for the use of property owned, as well as operational management, is calculated by the formula:

AI = (AItg + Su + Cc) x K, in which:

  • the amount of property rental fees expected to be credited next year is AI;

  • the estimated amount in the current period is Aitg;

  • the value of the reduction of deductions due to the reduction in the area provided for use in the next year, - Сс;

  • the amount of the increase in income for the property in connection with the estimated increase in rental properties in the coming period - Su;

  • the expected deflator coefficient, which applies to the rate of payment for the use of tangible assets or to their estimated value in the coming year, is K.

To calculate the total amount of these amounts in the coming period, the revenue forecasting technique provides for the following equation:

Azi (p) = (Azi (t) + Azi (t-1) + Azi (t-2)) / 3, in which:

  • rent for property and land - AZI (p);

  • AZI (t) … ASI (t-1) - the actual (estimated) value of annual amounts for 3 years preceding the future.

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Amounts from the sale of material assets

The income forecasting methodology provides the following formula for calculating:

RI = Pl x St, in which:

  • amounts from sales - RI;

  • the average cost of 1 square. m. of an immovable object, determined by the results of tenders organized in the period preceding the settlement, - Art;

  • area of ​​structures, buildings, premises to be sold in the next year - Pl.

The calculation of the volumes of these amounts for the planning period is performed using the following equation:

RI (p) = (RI (t) + RI (t-1) + RI (t-2)) / 3, in which:

  • RI (t) … RI (t-2) - the estimated (actual) value of the annual deductions for 3 years preceding the next one.

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Variable amounts

The averaged methodology for forecasting non-tax revenue is used in the calculation of expected deductions made unsystematically. The initial data are the average annual volumes of actual amounts received for the previous three years. These indicators are taken from reports on the execution of budget items (f. 0503127). The category of non-permanent includes the following amounts:

  1. The state duty for performing notarial acts by employees of local authorities with appropriate authority, in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation.

  2. From the disposal and sale of confiscated and other material assets converted into settlement incomes.

  3. State duty for the provision by local authorities of a special permit for moving vehicles transporting heavy / bulky, dangerous goods on highways.

  4. Charged by local authorities for the performance of certain functions.

  5. From monetary penalties for violations of financial law.

  6. From compensation for damage resulting from misuse or misuse of funds by local administrations.

  7. From levying fines for violations of regulatory acts of the Russian Federation on the contract system in the field of procurement of services, products, works to ensure municipal and state needs.

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Formulas

The methodology for forecasting non-tax revenues provides the following method of calculation:

P = (P (m) + P (m-1) + P (m-2) + P (m-3)) / 4, where

  • P (m) … P (m-3) - the actual amount received for 3 reporting periods;

  • P (m) - the estimated amount of funds in the current year.

The last indicator is calculated by the formula:

P (m) = (Po (m) / k) * 12, in which:

  • Po (m) - the actual amount received for the ended period in the current year;

  • to - the number of months of the ended reporting period in tech. year.

The total volume of the above amounts for the coming period is determined using the following equation:

P (p) = (P (t) + P (t-1) + P (t-2)) / 3, in which:

P (t) … P (t-2) - the estimated (actual) value of the annual amounts received during the three years preceding the forecast.

Gratuitous funds

The volumes of such amounts received from the regional budget are forecasted in accordance with the indicators established in the legislative acts of the subject or regulatory documents of the authorities. The amount of gratuitous funds from the district fund expected to be credited is calculated according to the values ​​provided in the decision on the composition of financial items for the coming period.

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