What is Brexit? A word that did not come off the front pages of all world media in the summer of 2016 means Britain's exit from the European Union. And Brexit is the main goal of the opposition and individuals (Euro-skeptics, for example, or nationalists) in the United Kingdom.
Last year, a referendum was held on the issue of UK membership in the EU. I must say that this was not the first such event. The same referendum was held in 1975, and in the government the question was raised earlier, when the opposition government came to power. So, Brexit: what is it and why is it dangerous for relations between London and Moscow, for the UK itself, and for the whole European Union as a whole?
Definition
How to understand the word "Brexit"? Neologism, which on the eve of the referendum in the UK in 2016 was introduced into widespread use by the media, is formed from the words "Britain" (Great Britain) and "exit" (exit). Brexit is an abbreviation for the process of UK withdrawal from the EU and all the events associated with this. English neologism is formed by analogy with "Grexit". This word indicates a possible exit from the European Union of Greece.
Brief Background
The Treaty of Rome, which eliminated all obstacles to the free movement of people, goods and capital between Germany, Italy, France, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands, laid the foundation for the European Economic Community. Great Britain applied for joining the EEC in 1963 and 1967, but both attempts were unsuccessful. The then president of France, Charles de Gaulle, vetoed the entry of the United Kingdom into the community. The reason for this was a number of aspects of the British economy, which allegedly did not correspond to European practice.
Britain filed a successful third application in 1972 when de Gaulle resigned. The United Kingdom became part of the EEC when it was led by the conservative government of Edward Heath. The Prime Minister believed that Europe would soon become a superpower and ousted the United States from all significant positions in the international arena.
In the 1974 election, the opposition was led by Harold Wilson. The new government has promised to review the issue of UK membership in the EEC and hold a referendum. At a referendum in 1975, the majority of citizens (67%) spoke in favor of maintaining membership in the economic community. All major political parties and the media supported this decision.
In 1993, the economic community became the European Union. In connection with the change of organization (from an economic union into a political one), the issue of membership has become relevant again.
In the early nineties, an Independence Party appeared in the United Kingdom, in which the majority were Eurosceptics. In 2004, the party took third place in parliamentary elections, in 2011 - second, in 2014 - first. This was the first time that another political party came to power in Great Britain, besides the Conservative and Labor.
2016 referendum
A referendum on UK membership in the EU was held on June 23, 2016. All citizens of the United Kingdom and Commonwealth countries, British citizens who have lived abroad for no more than 15 years, as well as members of the House of Lords, could vote. The vote count was completed by 7:30 a.m. on June 24. With an advantage of 3.78%, supporters of the exit from the EU (Brexit) won. This put an end to the issue that has been debated in the United Kingdom since 1974.
Media and Government Response
David Cameron, then prime minister, announced that he would resign before the fall of 2016 as soon as it became known that Brexit had won. He understood that if the inhabitants of the country decided to take a different path, a new leadership was needed. In fact, he resigned even earlier - on July 13, 2016. Notice of the beginning of Brexit was signed by Teresa May.
The media comments were not long in coming. The BBC noted that the leaders of the Independence Party have already christened June 23 as "Independence Day", but the pound fell sharply to the 1985 mark. CNN did not forget to mention that Great Britain is the first country to vote for withdrawing from the European Union, while RussiaToday paid more attention to panic on exchanges. The commotion was triggered by this political event.
The TASS said that the referendum is only advisory in nature. This means that the results can still be considered by parliament, which theoretically can make a different decision. You can also hold another referendum. But still, D. Cameron has already promised to fulfill the will of the people of Great Britain, who spoke in favor of withdrawing from the European Union.
Implications for the UK
What is Brexit for the UK? The European Union is the main trading partner of the United Kingdom. EU countries account for 45% of exports, 53% of imports and almost half of investments. If Brexit does happen, it will mean that the UK needs to enter into new trade agreements with European countries so that British firms can continue to sell their products on the European market without restrictions.
There are several options for implementing the decision of the referendum on Britain's EU membership, and several scenarios:
- Norwegian script. Great Britain will leave the EU and join the European Economic Area. This will give the country access to the European market (except for the financial sector) and free from EU rules in domestic policy: agriculture, law, fisheries, internal affairs and in other directions.
- Swiss script. The United Kingdom will follow the example of Switzerland. The country is not a member of either an economic or political union, but is a Schengen member. Switzerland also concludes separate agreements for each sector of the economy.
- Turkish script. Great Britain will enter into a customs union with Europe, which will give access to the European market. There will be no access in the financial sector.
- Swiss model arrangement. The United Kingdom may conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union with guarantees of access to the financial sector.
- A complete breakup. Great Britain can completely break off relations with the EU.
Implementation of referendum decisions
A referendum on Britain’s membership in the European Union put an end to the Brexit issue. What is it and what does it mean for the UK, in general terms it’s understandable, but how did the country generally plan to leave the EU?
Not a single state before Great Britain expressed a desire to leave the EU, but this does not mean that such an opportunity does not exist. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty allows a country to secede from the European Union, but until then no formal mechanism for a correct exit has been developed.
Scenarios: exit features
Brexit can take about two years, but this period can be extended by decision of the parties. Stages of UK exit from the European Union:
- EU official notice that launches Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
- Start of negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU. The European Council must be provided with a draft agreement. It must be approved by at least 20 countries in which at least 65% of the EU population lives. If this happens, the project is ratified by the European Parliament.
- If no agreement is reached within two years from the moment of official notification by the EU, all treaties of the European Union cease to be valid for Great Britain. If all 27 EU member states agree, negotiations can be extended for a longer period.
- The UK officially leaves the EU either after ratification of the agreement by the European Parliament, or two years after notification (automatically) if no agreement is reached.
European Union Position
After the exit of the United Kingdom, the EU will lose some of its sales markets, while the euro will increase against the pound. In addition, mainland migrant workers will return to Europe. It can be expected that a wave of separatism will rise against the European Union in all its countries, especially in Finland, Sweden and Greece. Also, border control at the entrance to the English Channel tunnel will significantly increase the travel time on the Paris - London route.
